A national political campaign is better than the best circus ever heard of, with a mass baptism and a couple of hangings thrown in. – H. L. Mencken
It was just last February when Ron DeSantis graced northern Illinois with his presence at what was purported to be an informal gathering intended to support and recruit law enforcement officers to work in Florida. But we all know it was nothing more than a thinly veiled foray into those traditionally turbulent presidential campaign waters.
The friends who circumvented the police officer-only invite – not a terribly difficult feat to accomplish – reported that Ron was the kind of real deal who was going to take the Republican Party back from the Trump fanatics that were destroying it.
I was skeptical because there’s a vast difference between a gubernatorial and presidential campaign, and as a campaign aide would later confirm, DeSantis believed he was on a mission from God. That might work for the Blues Brothers, but the politicians who believe in their divine right can neither perceive nor contend with the inevitable setbacks that are always a peril part of any national campaign.
And that certainly turned out to be the case here. In Ron’s mind it was all over but the coronation. Though that’s always dangerous thinking, I understand that initial self-perceived invulnerability.
Despite a rabid campaign against his often-blunt force conservative policies, DeSantis was just reelected Florida governor by a whopping 19-point margin. He was the de facto Republican face in the culture war battles, having won some notable victories against wokeism in his state. He’d already raised $130 million with billionaires lining up to support him as the reasonable conservative alternative to another disastrous Trump presidency.
There was an aura of imminent anointment around him and the nomination appeared to be his to lose – which is exactly what he proceeded to do in epic fashion.
But before we go there, please note that the forthcoming concepts apply equally to running for any office from Geneva alderman all the way up to the POTUS. In fact, those commonalities were the very basis for my decision to write this piece.
So, here’s how Ron blew it:
1. Too much of a “good” thing
Even I supported Florida’s badly misnamed “Don’t say gay law,” which simply set aside teaching sexuality until after third grade. My theory’s always been that we should let children be children for as long as realistically possible.
But as it is with most true believers, DeSantis wasn’t satisfied with that significant, but reasonable victory. Like a comedian who believes he can always milk a bit for a larger laugh, DeSantis started going after teachers and the Florida curriculum in general, including, but not nearly limited to, rewriting the state’s black history.
It was the kind of boneheaded unnecessary political maneuver that had anyone with two working brain cells scratching their heads. There are times when you have to stand behind your policies in spite of a difficult headwind, but glossing over slavery ain’t one of them.
When that move went over like a lead zeppelin, instead of taking the hint and making the appropriate adjustments, DeSantis doubled down by going after teachers unions and becoming the first Florida governor to endorse school board candidates. Those bizarre moves only served to make him appear to be a hyperactive helicopter parent and weak bully instead of the cultural savior he thought he would be.
But his worst and most baffling policy decision was to relentlessly go after Florida’s largest employer, the Walt Disney Company, for having the temerity to ask the courts to overturn the don’t say gay law. Considering Disney’s popularity, money, and impending $17 billion investment in the state, it was a battle he couldn’t win, and the fact he thought he could cast serious doubt on his character and competence.
It was as if the ghost of Norman Bates’ mother, dressed in a Trump wig, orange makeup, and red tie, was incessantly tormenting him with the line, “Ronnie! You’re just a poser. You’re never gonna be conservative enough,” and he was desperately trying to prove her wrong.
2. I am the other guy
If you’ve read my soon-to-be-bestselling book, So You Want to Win a Local Election, you know one of the worst political campaign strategies is the “I’m not the other guy” defense. It’s typically applied when a candidate believes his incumbent opponent is so badly damaged that all he has to do is sit back, shut up, and watch them hang themselves.
But it almost never works.
The best example of how this risk aversive approach backfires is the 2010 Illinois gubernatorial race pitting incumbent Dem Pat Quinn against downstate Republican state senator Bill Brady. Brady and his camp thought Quinn was so despised they could simply sit back, keep their mouths shut, mount a minimal campaign, and he’d waltz right into that Springfield mansion.
But much like nature abhors a vacuum, the Brady team’s silence provided Quinn’s people with the perfect opportunity to define the GOPer as far too conservative for Illinois. When their “Who is Bill Brady” message resonated with female voters, the candidate went down in history as just another also-ran.
That might make you think the converse would work, but you’d be wrong, because the “I am the other guy” approach is even worse.
As we just stipulated, DeSantis was determined to prove he was every bit of Trump as Trump, which resulted in boneheaded policy decisions that angered, and eventually alienated, his largest contributors like billionaire Ken Griffin who tired of his Trump-lite antics.
Ron’s first mistake was believing that Trump wins on a policy basis when the truth is it’s all about his cult of personality. C’mon! Trump will change policy stances within the same flippin’ speech. DeSantis’ second problem was he didn’t have much of a personality, which makes it impossible to compete with the guy who does. But no one on his campaign team had the nerve to tell his highness he was buck nekkid.
And third, and most importantly, if you are the other guy, then why would anyone feel the need to vote for you? No one can outTrump Trump, so what’s the point in trying?
Since we just hit the thousand word mark we’ll continue with part 2 on Thursday. Please stay tuned!
