But before we go there, let’s take a quick look at Illinois’ latest numbers:
Date Cases % Increase N Cases N Tested Prevalence Deaths N Deaths
6/26 140,291 0.6 857 30,425 1 in 35.5 6,850 39
6/27 141,077 0.5 786 30,237 1 in 38.4 6,873 23
6/28 141,723 0.4 646 23,789 1 in 36.8 6,888 15
6/29 142,451 0.5 728 26,918 1 in 36.9 6,902 14
6/30 143,185 0.5 734 31,069 1 in 42.3 6,923 21
7/1 144,013 0.5 828 33,090 1 in 39.9 6,951 28
7/2 144,882 0.6 869 30,262 1 in 34.8 6,987 36
7/3 145,750 0.5 868 34,318 1 in 39.5 7,005 18
7/4 146,612 0.5 862 27,235 1 in 31.5 7,015 10
7/5 147,251 0.4 639 33,836 1 in 52.9 7,021 6
7/6 147,865 0.4 614 21,134 1 in 34.4 7,026 5
7/7 148,452 0.3 587 26,994 1 in 45.9 7,063 37
We’ve tested 1,809,834 citizens, IL has slipped to sixth place in the state coronavirus rankings, and the national mortality rate has precipitously declined to 4.3 percent.
1. Mortality rate
As we predicted, with coronavirus deaths falling off the table, the Illinois mortality finally inched downward to 4.7 percent. Again, take away the pointless nursing home deaths it would be less than half that. To make matters even better, add the CDC’s declaration that we have 10 times the asymptomatic cases as originally thought, and the COVID-19 mortality rate drops well below that of the annual flu.
2. New daily case percentage increase
Until Illinois experiences a COVID-19 spike, and we likely will when school resumes, this indicator is exactly where it will be until the pandemic burns itself out.
3. New daily cases
See the new daily case percentage increase.
We seem to have at temporarily settled on 1 in 35, but given past history, this number will likely retreat further.
5. Daily Deaths
This continues to be the best stat. And it’s not a matter of declining case totals, either, as the daily death toll has disproportionally plummeted.
6. ICU beds and ventilators
It just keeps getting better. As of yesterday, a mere 320 Illinois ICU beds and 153 ventilators were applied to COVID-19 patients.
Meanwhile, in an effort to confirm some stipulations and get reasonable answers to lingering questions, I’ve spent a great deal of time talking to real experts about the current coronavirus circumstances. And by “real experts” I mean those fine folks who actually pay attention to facts and statistics and they don’t change their minds every ten seconds.
And no! I will not provide anyone with the names of those sources simply because you demand them! Bleepin’ entitled bleeps! This pandemic has become such a political hot potato that I will expose them to the regular bovine manure generally hurled in my direction.
So, here’s how those conversations went!
1. Illinois has succeeded
Remember! Before the pandemic became a partisan proposition, the goal was to flatten the curve such that our healthcare system wouldn’t be overwhelmed. Since we’ve certainly accomplished that mission, let’s get back to reasonably living our lives.
2. The spikes
We’ve already touched on this! With the plague not going anywhere, is it any surprise that our three most populous states, California, Texas and Florida are experiencing case increases?
No, it isn’t! As one expert said, “It’s a matter of density!” They also added that it isn’t going to the beach that gets you, it’s crowding into the bars and stores afterward that does it.
But because those new cases primarily consist of young folks, the mortality rate in those states continues to free fall. Florida ranks 26th with 18 deaths per 100,000 residents, California is 30th with 16, and Texas is 45th with just 9!
And despite this second wave, their COVID-19 mortality rates are far better than Illinois’ 56 out of every 100,000. It’s called critical thinking people!
Did we really think the pandemic was going anywhere?
3. Herd immunity
Not only did my new experts agree that herd immunity is the only way out of this, but that, the Governor’s worst efforts notwithstanding, our insistently retreating prevalence in the face of consistently increasing testing means Illinois is well on its way to the final pandemic resolution.
They also acknowledged that, with 25 percent of the population refusing to consider a “rushed” vaccine, when it finally does arrive, that vaccine will be as pointless as a Trump political rally
4. How you catch it
Unless you lick a surface or someone licks you outside, the singular COVID-19 transmission medium is repeated exposure in poorly ventilated rooms.
5. An Illinois back to school spike?
Yep! Sure as I’m sittin’ here, it’s gonna happen! And a great part of the reason for that will be our brain-dead Governor banned recess until further notice. So, now those kids will be stuck in perpetually poorly ventilated classrooms and cafeterias even longer!
Then, because of his own stupidity, the Governor will call for a second shutdown.
6. There’s no reason for new shortages
Those same three spiking states have been rolling back their re-opening efforts, but who’s flippin’ fault is that? Did those governors really think the pandemic was packing up and leaving as they closed down those temporary COVID-19 treatment facilities?
Now, they’re issuing all sorts of preposterous self-righteous proclamations about how the rest of us suck when they should be pointing the finger directly into their bathroom mirror.
Then, yesterday, CNN and other media outlets warned of new PPE shortages. Really? The whole point of the shelter-in-place orders was to provide states with catch-up time, but it’s three months after the fact and we’re still not prepared? That’s a bi-partisan political failure of epic proportion.
7. What’s the plan?
I keep asking them, but those progressive nanny-staters just keep walking away. And they’re just as bad as Trump, too, because, contrary to their “conventional wisdom,” no manner of repeated shutdowns will eradicate any pandemic. Just like it’s been for the previous 199,999 years we’ve walked the planet, it has to run its course.
But the difference between this classic liberal and today’s crazy crop of petulant progressives is, I don’t expect you to absolve me from the consequences of my life choices, and my regular readers know just how fascinating those consequences can be!
If, like my wife, you’re a teacher, but you’re afraid of going back to school, retire! If you’re a Major Leaguer and you feel the impending abbreviated season carries too much risk, opt out. And if you’re a health care worker and you don’t want to be repeatedly exposed to the virus, then quit and make a better career choice.
The next pandemic is already brewing in China!
Of course I’ll continue to take all the basic precautions! But I’ve never asked anyone to save me from myself and I certainly don’t expect you to ask me to do the same. The basic definition of this life is “risk!”