We still have quite a bit to cover so let’s get right to it.
4. Messaging 3 – The I’m not the other guy strategy never works
This is where I really blew it. Again, I thought Trump was so repulsive that effectively noting that you’re not him was a reasonable strategy. Of all candidates, he might be the exception. But as I’ve previously postulated, the “I’m not the other guy” messaging methodology never works.
I should’ve known better, too, because I’m the one who told former State Senator Bill Brady – to his face – that his “I’m not Pat Quinn” message would fall flat with voters, which is exactly what it did.
Taking a cue from Barack Obama, Harris should’ve focused on what she brings to the table, not what Trump takes away from it. She should’ve told her story, not his, because everyone already knows the sad Trump tale ad nauseum. And if you don’t tell your story the other side will, which is exactly what happened when Quinn’s team rushed into the vacuum by defining Brady as too extreme for Illinois. And then Brady’s political career was over.
One of the keynotes in my book, and a hallmark of all of the campaigns I run, is we NEVER mention the other guy. At best he or she is “my opponent.” Why give them free advertising?
I won’t make this mistake again.
5. Republicans say, “Fuck you,” while Democrats panic.
I’m not sure if it was 60 Minutes, but then VP Dick Cheney was asked to comment on the GOP scandal du jour. He scornfully looked the interviewer squarely in the eye and said, “So?” But when the Dems face the slightest hint of bad publicity they fold just like Martin Short’s always sweaty chain-smoking SNL Nathan Thurm character ostensibly being interviewed on the same show.
Put more simply, the Democrats really need to learn how to say “So?,” particularly after minor blips like Biden “losing” the first debate.
Reporter: “Wow! Biden really sucked last night?”
Dem Congressman: “So?”
As superstar Steph Curry put it, “Harris roasted a pig” in the second debate, but it didn’t make much difference in the end, now did it? The GOP ignores their defeat while the Democrats obsess over them.
When defeated North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson got caught leaving fascinating comments on porn websites, the GOP basically said, “Yeah, he’s a little weird, but he’s our guy.” When there was just a whiff of a scandal involving former Minnesota Senator Al Franken, the Democrats turned on him like jackals on a wounded wildebeest.
I’m not saying the Dems should go over to the dark side, but they CANNOT continue to hamstring themselves by playing by a set of rules that no longer apply in the Trump era. For God’s sake! All you have to do is make minimal fun of the insanely immature Grand Cheeto and he summarily collapses into a pile of orange Jello.
It’s not all that difficult.
6. “If you know your opponent and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”
Clearly, the Democrats need to read Sun Tzu because this is where they lost the White House.
With rare exception, I have little to no respect for Trump voters, but unlike most Democrats, I can understand why people vote for him. A great part of the reason I win elections is I can generally determine what makes the other side tick. And once you understand that dynamic, you can either take advantage of it, or counter it.
But instead of making any effort to understand Trump voters, the Dems demonize them with terms like “basket of deplorables” and “garbage,” and then they fully dismiss them. They can’t seem to comprehend how Trump appeals to older white folks’ fears and base instincts which, when left unchecked, can be a very powerful and addictive drug.
Take my slightly upper middle class Geneva Fisher Farms neighborhood. There are times when the bigotry, homophobia, and misogyny are almost palpable. These scared Caucasians are so terrified of losing their perceived place on the planet that, instead of standing for something, they’ll fall for anything. I have to constantly remind myself that this rabble isn’t like me or I’ll start losing elections.
Though it’s slowly turning blue, the rest of Geneva isn’t much different.
I know I’m going to regret writing this, but I have a scant two or three neighborhood friends because I don’t like these overly entitled people and I never have. I can be cordial and downright friendly because I learned the price of isolating myself the hard way. Larry David was right – the world is full of George Costanzas.
But if I can learn how to get along with the rabble then…
I’m not sayin’ the Dems should give up on the LGBTQ community, far from it. What I am saying is you can’t take voters somewhere they’re not ready to go. Political and cultural change always comes slowly, and they only stick when those shifts occur organically. To wit, our children won’t nearly be as prone to our prejudices, so positive change is inevitable.
I’ve also regularly repeated that our schools should stick to education, and as terrifying as the prospect might be, leave the morality lessons to the parents. Expounding upon gender issues, race theory, and feminism at anything under the college level is a losing political proposition.
The reasonable truth is, until very recently, we’ve made some serious advances in the intolerance regard, but now we’re headed backward because white folks got scared of those changes being thrust upon them. So, they voted for Trump.
If you understand that, you can beat him. If you don’t, you can’t.
7. COVID has determined two presidencies
Trump lost in 2020 because he infamously said, “COVID is going to come here and magically disappear,” and then he foolishly acted accordingly. That time the collective fear worked against him. But the scenario flipped in 2024. Despite a robust economy, Trump was able to tap into that lingering post-COVID economic angst, and even his ham-handed messaging worked, in great part because the Dems failed to effectively counter it.
Playing off an old campaign adage, how difficult is it to say, “It’s price gouging, stupid!”
Ah But here’s where I managed to make an accurate prediction. In 2020 I warned my fellow liberals that if they kept shouting, “Fuck the economy! The mitigations save lives,” would have long-term negative consequences. And what could be a more deleterious repercussion than a second Trump presidency?
And I was a man without a country for having the temerity to say that, too. Holy crap did I take heat. But the “mitigations” didn’t save a single life and the perception of a bad economy gave Trump the opening he needed. Democrats just love being hoist by their own petard, don’t they?
That just about covers it. Since I loathe journalists/pundits who make bad predictions and act like they never made them, I want to be clear that I blew this one big time. But that doesn’t mean I can’t look back on a mistake, figure out what went wrong, and adjust, just as I have here. In my defense, at least I still have a pretty good handle on the local situation.
But the question is, do I think the national Democrats will similarly learn any of this by 2028? Nope!
Author’s note:
I know it’s hard to believe, but Monday is the final day for submitting your 2025 consolidated election nominating paperwork. Please consider that not only did I write the book on it, but I have a 70 percent plus campaign winning track record. So, if you’re a reasonable candidate (particularly for mayor of Geneva) and you want to win, feel free to reach out to me at jeff@forwardcom.me. I’m sure we can work something out.
