The First Ward’s 2024 Election Recap

Though my predictions generally rang true and my reputation for getting local candidates elected – with “a little help from my friends” – remains secure, Donald Trump is clearly my prognosticative kryptonite. It wasn’t even close, either, with the pollsters, once again, way off the mark. None of them hypothesized that Trump would handily win the popular vote.

It would seem that the art of the political survey is dead.

Though we’ll delve a bit deeper soon, I can only attribute this strange twist of political fate to the average American’s capacity to vote against their own best interest. Or perhaps it’s that we can’t seem to elect a female president, particularly one of the mixed-race variety. Maybe it’s a combination of both.

Thankfully, sanity prevailed on the local level with very few unexpected twists, if any.

At least in my mind, the biggest surprise was, despite Kane County resoundly repudiating the Grand Cheeto, his MAGA minions generally did better than his meager 45 percent. Don’t get me wrong, with the exception of Recorder Sandy Wegman, it was a Democratic sweep, but considering the disarray that is the KC GOP, I didn’t think those candidates would do nearly as well as they did.

It shows that those of us steeped in the political process tend to too often assume that the average voter is actively engaged in the political process. But these 2024 numbers clearly say they’re not. In the end, Republicans voted for Republicans, Democrats voted for the Democrats, and then the Democrats outhustled the GOP for those coveted swing voters that decide most elections.

That’s the value of a well-run organization executing a well-run campaign.

The second surprise was County Board member Monica Silva’s 4,000 vote victory over long-term Republican incumbent Coroner Rob Russell. Working with Monica, a candidate who listens and executes is the stuff of every campaign manager’s dream. Let’s just say I could really get used to it!

I do feel bad for Rob because this ain’t the Republican Party that he signed on with. Not only did he have the political rug and the floor pulled out from under him, but the foundation as well. Worse yet, he was facing a challenger with resolve, a specific campaign plan, and the determination to carry out that plan. Both candidates deserve a lot of credit for refusing to resort to the “nastiness” cited in a previous column.

Considering how long Republican Mike Kenyon held that 16th county board district seat, I probably shouldn’t be somewhat stunned by MAGA candidate Eric Stare’s 47 percent showing. My theory was his vast negatives should’ve turned into a larger loss. But to repeat myself, the difference in that race was board member elect Ted Penesis listened, he swiftly grasped the voter targeting process, and he carried out the plan accordingly, working tirelessly to the very end.

All I can say is, despite his wife’s wishes, I would be thrilled to work with Ted again on any future campaign anywhere. And that’s really saying something when you tend to despise the rabble as much as I do.

Considering the lack of upsets and we’re already 600 words in, I’m not going to go over every single Kane County race ad nauseum. So, let’s briefly – I hope – wrap it up.

My biggest disappointment is Ricky Rivard losing to incumbent Bill Roth in the 12th county board district. I’ve never seen a candidate work harder than Ricky did, but even that Herculean effort wasn’t enough to overcome the second most Republican board district in the county. Considering his more-than-reasonable showing, I’m sure we’ll see his name on the ballot before too long and I can’t wait to work with him again.

Thankfully, that despair was offset by incumbent Dale Berman beating challenger Ellen Nottke in the 2nd board district race. I’m not going to get into all of the gory details, but my regular readers will understand why I took a special interest in that contest. I told Dale I was gonna be his Jewish mother for the duration and that’s exactly what I did.

C’mon! Every candidate needs a Jewish mother!

Despite Lauzen and company going after county board 4 incumbent Mavis Bates with all guns blazing, she cruised past “Independent” upstart Robert Denin by an almost two-to-one margin. Ha I said “endorsements don’t matter.”

The sad thing is, Lauzen resorted to the worst kind of Trump-esque lies further sullying his already deteriorating reputation. Mavis isn’t perfect because no candidate is, but she certainly isn’t the root of all political evil, either. Lauzen should also be smart enough to realize that voters with that 8.25 second attention span WILL NEVER open a campaign envelope, much less read a full-page letter.

Jonathon Gripe did prevail in Mark Davoust’s almost former board seat, but the 15th is the most Republican county board district in the County. I vainly tried to convince challenger Brenda Englehart to tack back to the middle during the general, but considering the results, I’m not sure if that would’ve made a difference.

Other than the 12th, 14th, and 8th, the Democrats prevailed in the remaining 9 contests solidifying their grip on that body. Of course, the irony of the Campton Hill’s Terriers sinking Kenyon only to have him replaced by a Democrat is flippin’ hilarious. With enemies like them, who needs friends?

With the Silva and recorder exceptions, the margins in the countywide races were essentially the same. States Attorney Jamie Mosser, Circuit Clerk Theresa Barreiro, Chairman Corinne Pierog, and Auditor Penny Wegman beat their respective GOP challengers by the same 14,000 votes. And unless the Republicans reverse that trend soon, County Clerk Jack Cunningham will be the last Republican left standing, but the KC GOP will still be stupid enough to primary him again in 2026.

Recorder Sandy Wegman managed to hold onto her seat, but by just 6,000 votes against a candidate who refused to campaign. A number of KC Dems tried to convince Marisela Villegas to make a minimal campaign effort, but they were summarily rebuffed. Had she made any attempt to do so, she would’ve won!

That leaves us with the judicial races, which again, presented no surprises.

Without exception, the judges were retained, including the ultra-incompetent John Dalton and Mike Noland. But my understanding is that Judge Nolan is in some deep Judicial Inquiry Board shit for the way he comported himself during his retention “campaign.”

It couldn’t have happened to a nicer jackass.

Associate Judge Sandra Parga also beat Associate Judge David Kliment in the race for retired Judge Clint Hull’s 4th subcircuit seat by less than 3,000 votes. Party monikers don’t mean much when it comes to the men and women in black, but by virtue of being the “Republican,” candidate, Kliment should’ve won in that GOP enclave. But he didn’t because he failed to mount any form of a serious campaign.

Prior to being hired by the Dems, I reached out to the Kliment campaign to be politely told they had things well in hand. But I’m thinking I could’ve made a difference in that one. Not that I’m blowing my own horn because I would never do anything as crass as that in print.

One more interesting point. For the first time since early voting commenced, Democrats outvoted Republicans ON ELECTION DAY by 800 voters. Can you say “sea change?” I knew you could.

Since I know you’ve been patiently waiting for it, here’s the bottom line.  If the KC GOP bore any resemblance to an actual “organization,” and they somehow managed to avoid alienating their traditional donors, Tuesday night could’ve turned out quite differently.

That, my favored Kane County Dems, means there’s no mandate here. It wasn’t that long ago when it was the Republicans who were regularly sweeping those races, and though it’s highly unlikely, they could come to their senses and provide a real 2026 challenge. That means good governance is what will be required to hang onto those hard-earned seats.

Well…that and you really don’t want me writing about you, now do you?

If the prospect of another Trump administration scares you – and it should – then the fact that I’m proximately responsible for getting three of the eight Kane Countywide officials elected should terrify you even more. 

Lastly I want to give County Clerk Jack Cunningham and his crack staff a boatload of credit for pulling off another flawless election. Until you’ve worked in that office (like I did), you won’t understand that it’s not easy to make it look that easy.

Author’s note:

With the glorious benediction of 20-20 hindsight, on Tuesday, we’ll discuss where the national Democrats went wrong. Every last pundit is missing the fact that COVID has determined the last two presidential elections.