The First Ward Cornavirus Report – May 5, 2020

The First Ward Cornavirus Report – May 5, 2020

As you know, I generally like to get right to the numbers, but in the words of those great philosophers OK Go, “Here we go again!”  Because the same bleeps who’ve gotten it wrong all along, were somehow allowed to re-run their incessantly incorrect pandemic models and now they’re saying we’re all gonna die because some states had the temerity to reopen too early.

Whoa! I need to take a breath after that sentence!

Those fine folks at FEMA said the consequence of those foolhardy governors will be a massive eightfold increase to 200,000 new coronavirus cases a day, with the daily death toll “surging” to 3,000, nearly double what it is now.

Facts Not Fear 2

Meanwhile, the eternally errant epidemiologists at the University of Washington, the ones who wouldn’t know the real world if it bit ‘em in the ass, are telling us the “premature relaxation” of social distancing will result in 134,000 total COVID-19 deaths by August. That’s more than double the current count.

And the press just eats it up!

Yes! Those tragic numbers will come to pass if we start kissing random strangers and coughing on every old person we encounter, but that’s the only way these statistical impossibilities will ever happen.

You see, what the “modelers” don’t tell you is these impossible numbers are based on simulations in which we’ve shrugged off absolutely all coronavirus precautions and thrown our senior citizens to the plague-ridden wolves, but that’s clearly not gonna be the case.

Don’t forget! These are the same mopes who told us:

  • California would see 26 million cases in eight weeks, but they’re sitting at just 56,000 in seven.
  • Chicago would have 40,000 acute hospitalization in “a few weeks,” but the Second City has seen a mere 1,232 in six long weeks.
  • Hospital ICUs would be so overrun that we better build temporary facilities, but now they’re all being dismantled at the purported peak of the disease.

If you doubt me, let’s compare the struggling shelter-in-place United States with Sweden where there are no coronavirus restrictions. We’re experiencing 3,665 coronavirus cases per million inhabitants while Sweden’s seen just 2,299. It certainly doesn’t seem like the shut down strategy is working, does it?

We’ve has logged 211 deaths per million while Sweden’s is marginally higher at 283.  But that higher number may be explained by Sweden’s 41.1 median age (38.2 here), and they aren’t destroying their economy in the process, either!

But here’s the kicker! Despite neither the FEMA or U of  W “study” having been peer reviewed, in their headlong crusade to create more panic, fear, and loathing, the press is making that bovine manure headline news. Only the Chicago Tribune – in one short sentence – admitted the insane FEMA numbers “had not been vetted.”

To make matters so much worse, Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker is suddenly shrieking that COVID-19 patients now occupy 73 percent of southwestern Illinois ICU beds. What he’s not saying is that region had a limited number of ICU beds to begin with.

He’s also not telling you that just 36 percent of Chicago’s ICU beds are being used by coronavirus patients and those numbers are falling. Then Pritzker failed to mention the temporary overflow facilities like McCormick Place are being dismantled because that evidence doesn’t support his stilted narrative.

Then, after crying wolf for the tenth time, J. B. wonders why no one’s listening to him anymore, and that utterly irresponsible newspaper coverage has a similar equal and opposite effect.

As is par for the coronavirus course, neither our elected officials, nor the media, nor our newly minted social justice plague warriors ever offer any alternative to shutting down the country for another 1.5 years. So, I’ll ask all of ‘em one more time! What’s the plan?

With all that finally said, let’s get to the numbers! Since it was another good day, our analysis will be brief:

Date   Cases   % Increase  N Cases    N Tested  Prevalence  Deaths 

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

4/17   27,575            7.1          1,842           7,574       1 in 4.1       1,134

4/18   29,160            5.7          1,585           7,241       1 in 4.5       1,259

4/19   30,357            4.1          1,197           5,914       1 in 5          1,290

4/20   31,508            3.8          1,151           5,040       1 in 4.4       1,349

4/21   33,059            4.7          1,551           6,639       1 in 4.3       1,468

4/22   35,108            6.1          2,049           9,350       1 in 4.6       1,565

4/23   36,934            5.2          1,826           8,969       1 in 4.9       1,688

4/24   39,658            7.3          2,724         16,315       1 in 6          1,795

4/25   41,777            5.3          2,119         11,985       1 in 5.6       1,874

4/26   43,903            5.0          2,126         12,975       1 in 6.1       1,933

4/27   45,833            4.4          1,930         13,096       1 in 6.75     1,983

4/28   48,102            4.9          2,269         14,561       1 in 6.4       2,125

4/29   50,355            4.6          2,253         14,478       1 in 6.4       2,215

4/30   52,918            4.8          2,563         13,200       1 in 5.2       2,355

5/1     56,055            5.6          3,137         14,821       1 in 4.7       2,457

5/2     58,505            4.3          2,450         15,208       1 in 6.2       2,559

5/3     61,499            4.8          2,994         19,417       1 in 6.5       2,618

5/4     63,840            3.8          2,341         13,834       1 in 6          2,662

We’ve officially tested 333,147 residents and, until it changes, this will be the last time I mention we’re in fourth place in the state rankings.

But what’s the best news, class? That’s right:

1. A retreating 4.1 percent mortality rate and just 44 Monday deaths means most of the cases from two-ish weeks ago are either mild or asymptomatic. There’s no other possible explanation. And that’s particularly encouraging at a time when those higher case numbers should mean more coronavirus casualties

2. A 1 in 6 prevalence means testing more people is producing fewer positive results, and that’s borne out by the daily new case increase percentage which fell back to its 3.8 percent low.

3. Contrary to Pritzker’s proclamations, we haven’t had a statewide increase in COVID19 occupied ICU beds for five straight days. That would be statistically impossible if we were  moving towards some sort of pandemic peak.

Date   ICU Beds     %+     Ventilators      %+

4/23       1,225                         709

4/24       1,244        1.5            763               7.6

4/25       1,267        1.8            772               1.1

4/26       1,249       -1.4            763              -1.1

4/27       1,245       -0.3            778               1.9

4/28       1,290        0.3            777              -0.1

4/30       1,289       -0.8            785               1.0

5/1         1,263       -2.0            777              -1.0

5/2         1,250       -1.0            789               1.5

5/3         1,232       -1.4            759              -3.8

5/4         1,232        0.0            763               0.5

Critical thinking is a magical thing, Dear Readers, and even thought the rabble will hate you for it, I wouldn’t trade it for the world.

Stay safe!




9 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – May 5, 2020

  1. What about the numbers on the CDC web site? Can you make light of these? Only 38,576 deaths from just covid, no other underlined co morbidity.
    Covid with pneumonia 17,122. Pneumonia only

    1. Michelle,

      I wish I could, but there’s a reason I rarely rely on CDC numbers – they bear no resemblance to reality. And that’s especially true of the “recovering” case number which had one reader insisting the disease had a 66 percent mortality rate!

      Considering the Chicago, Kane County, New York, and Italy evidence, 90 percent of coronavirus casualties are folks over 65 with preexisting conditions. So, how the CDC can say more than half of the U.S. deaths had no other mitigating cause is pure bullshit.

      And pneumonia ain’t a preexisting condition. It’s what you get when you have the coronavirus.


  2. Good news doesn’t sell. It also won’t keep us hiding in our homes. We will all be so surprised when we don’t hit that 134,000 deaths in August; it will be sold to us as the reason being that the politicians had the strength and wherewithal to keep us all quarantined.

  3. It is misleading to compare the number of confirmed coronavirus cases per million in the U.S. to the number in Sweden, as they have done far less testing. The prevalence of coronavirus in Sweden is 1 in 5.2, compared to 1 in 6.1 in the U.S. right now. I am not sure that the difference in deaths is “marginal” either. If our deaths per million were equivalent to Sweden, that would be another 23,000 covid-19 deaths in the U.S. at this point!

    1. Phil,

      That is an excellent point, but it’s beyond mitigated by the fact that, while the U.S. has performed 36 percent more tests per million inhabitants than Sweden has, our corornavirus cases per million destroys Sweden’s by a massive 61 percent.

      Please see for my evidentiary support!

      That disconnect also brings Sweden’s prevalence into doubt. But the bottom line is, we know exactly how to prevent those deaths, and still, our elected officials are not moving to protect the most vulnerable.

      And that’s the real plague here.


      1. From BBC news on Sweden: But data suggests the vast majority of the population have taken to voluntary social distancing, which is the crux of Sweden’s strategy to slow the spread of the virus.

        Usage of public transport has dropped significantly, large numbers are working from home, and most refrained from travelling over the Easter weekend. The government has also banned gatherings of more than 50 people and visits to elderly care homes.

        Around 9 in 10 Swedes say they keep at least a metre away from people at least some of the time, up from seven in 10 a month ago, according to a major survey by polling firm Novus.

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