The First Ward Coronavirus Report – A record day for testing!

The First Ward Coronavirus Report – A record day for testing!

Since I have proposals and a book to write, let’s get right to it!

Date   Cases   % Increase N Cases  N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

3/18     288

3/19     422               46.5           134                           1 in 14

3/20     585               37              163                           1 in 12

3/21     753               29              296                           1 in 7

3/22     1,049            39              896                           1 in 2

3/23     1,285            28              236                           1 in 8

3/24     1,535            22.5           250                           1 in 8

3/25     1,855            21.5           320                           1 in 6

3/26     2,538            37              683                           1 in 6

3/27     3,026            19              488                           1 in 8

3/28     3,491            15.4           465                           1 in 8

3/29     4,596            31.6        1,105                           1 in 4               65

3/30     5,056            10              460           2,684       1 in 6               72

3/31     5,994            18.5           938           4,779       1 in 5               90

4/1       6,980            16.5           986           5,159       1 in 5             141

4/2       7,695            10.2           715           3,272       1 in 4.6          157

4/3       8,904            15.7        1,209           4,392       1 in 3.6          210

4/4     10,357            16           1,456           5,533       1 in 4             243

4/5     11,256            8.6             899           5,402       1 in 6             274

4/6     12,262            9             1,006           3,959       1 in 4             307

4/7     13,549            10.5        1,287           5,790       1 in 4.5          380

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

75,066 Illinoisans have now been tested, including a record 6,334 test results coming back yesterday! The prevalence seems to be stabilizing at 1 in 4, a likely result of a more focused testing effort and not the disease mutating into something suddenly more contagious.

Facts Not Fear 4

Despite the mortality rate’s inherent lag, I’m a bit surprised – and bothered – by the Illinois bounce to 3 percent, or 1 in 33. It’s still marginally better than the national 3.4 percent mortality rate, and far better than the global 5.85 percent, but it still seems unduly high.

Again, if we took all the asymptomatic folks into account, that percentage would likely be cut in half, and we have no idea how a variety of hospitals are counting coronavirus casualties, either. The truth is, that number has always been somewhat unreliable.

Considering there’s never been a daily decrease in the mortality rate, it’s bound to climb a little higher as we move towards our probable April 15 COVID-19 peak.

But thankfully, that’s the only bad news. Despite yesterday’s record testing leading to a record number of new cases, our daily case percentage increase still came in at an eminently low 11.3 percent. That confirms our decelerating trend, which is particularly significant when we’re only a week away from the predicted peak.

Put more simply, were it not for our more robust recent testing, that percentage would’ve continued to decline, and the fact that more testing hasn’t led to a serious new case percentage increase is really good news!

Sometimes, it’s what the statistics aren’t saying that really tells the story.

If April 15 is indeed the coronavirus peak, I would expect those new case numbers to slowly start dropping around the end of the month. And once we see that trend take hold, we’re on our way out of this “fascinating” pandemic.

But if we don’t keep up the good work, you know exactly what’s gonna happen! We’re at the point in the curve where our continued vigilance matters more than ever, so let’s keep it up!

2 thoughts on “The First Ward Coronavirus Report – A record day for testing!

  1. Jeff do you have any knowledge that the number of test being performed or the maximum amount that can be performed or is that all the test that needed to be performed?
    i’m just wondering if the number of tests are going up because the testing is getting faster.
    Do you have any knowledge of when the test is taken to getting the results?
    I find myself not listening to the president war Pritzker and just going by your data which I know is correct because that’s the kind of guy you are.

    Thanks

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