The First Ward Cornavirus Report – The downside beckons!

The First Ward Cornavirus Report – The downside beckons!

I know it sounds like a bad Star Wars movie title, but with the Illinois mortality rate dropping for a second straight day, we’re now officially staring down the backside of the coronavirus curve.

But before we get to our table, I understand the fear of something so new, but what still kinda frosts my cookies are the folks who cling to doom and gloom scenarios with absolutely no evidence to support them. It’s almost as if a forced participation in this pandemic makes them somehow special, and woe be the name of anyone who tries to take that away from them!

Facts Not Fear 3

Though this is nothing new, the most common rebuttal I’m getting is there is a vast reserve of untested coronavirus sufferers out there who will summarily rise up and infect the rest of us.

But just like California Governor Gavin Newsom’s “26 million people will catch it in six weeks” and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s “We’ll have 40,000 acute hospitalization in a few weeks” proclamations were patently absurd, so is the theory that we’re all gonna die at the hands of an unseen COVID-19 zombie horde.

How do we know this? That’s right class! Because statistics never exist in a vacuum. If a trend is true, there will ALWAYS be supporting evidence. So, here’s why we know those pessimists are simply misguided:

1. Just like it is with political polling, access to a large enough sample size means you can accurately determine any trend within an entire group. And the average polling “universe” is a mere 500 to 1,000 voters. Given humanity’s instinctual herd behavior, contradictory trends cannot exist within the same population.

2. If there was a vast untapped coronavirus case reserve, our hospital ICUs would already be at or near capacity, but they’re not. Delnor just took down their tent extension and not even New York, the national epicenter of the disease, managed to overwhelm their healthcare facilities.

3. If there was a vast untapped coronavirus case reserve, then our improved testing capacity would quickly pick up on those unfortunate folks. But we’re seeing just the opposite. Despite that enhanced testing, our new daily coronavirus case numbers – and particularly the five-day moving average – are downright flat. Even Governor Pritzker noted that trend.

4. But the best indicator of this false hypothesis is our mortality rate. If there really was a slew of untested Illinois COVID-19 sufferers, by statistical definition, the mortality rate would “inexplicably” increase, but it hasn’t! In fact, it’s actually receding! The bottom line is, if Illinois harbors an unknown coronavirus horde, then where are all the bodies? Hospitals certainly can’t hide ‘em!

5. And lastly, considering our sample size trend postulate, it would be statistically impossible to hit our new 5.6 daily new case percentage increase if untested coronavirus cases were spreading the disease.

I won’t reveal all my professional secrets, but this is how I approach every political campaign I manage. I won’t buy into any strategy unless it’s borne out by three separate statistical angles. Furthermore, if a candidate tries to tell me he’ll get non-voters and the other side to support him, I’ll simply smile and walk away. Ignoring statistical realities is the quickest way to lose an election.

But back to our table!

Date   Cases   % Increase N Cases  N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

3/18     288

3/19     422               46.5           134                           1 in 14

3/20     585               37              163                           1 in 12

3/21     753               29              296                           1 in 7

3/22     1,049            39              896                           1 in 2

3/23     1,285            28              236                           1 in 8

3/24     1,535            22.5           250                           1 in 8

3/25     1,855            21.5           320                           1 in 6

3/26     2,538            37              683                           1 in 6

3/27     3,026            19              488                           1 in 8

3/28     3,491            15.4           465                           1 in 8

3/29     4,596            31.6        1,105                           1 in 4               65

3/30     5,056            10              460           2,684       1 in 6               72

3/31     5,994            18.5           938           4,779       1 in 5               90

4/1       6,980            16.5           986           5,159       1 in 5             141

4/2       7,695            10.2           715           3,272       1 in 4.6          157

4/3       8,904            15.7        1,209           4,392       1 in 3.6          210

4/4     10,357            16           1,456           5,533       1 in 4             243

4/5     11,256            8.6             899           5,402       1 in 6             274

4/6     12,262            9             1,006           3,959       1 in 4             307

4/7     13,549            10.5        1,287           5,790       1 in 4.5          380

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

4/9     16,422            9             1,344           5,791       1 in 4.3          528

4/10   17,887            8.7          1,445           6,670       1 in 4.6          596

4/11   19,180            7.2          1,293           5,252       1 in 4.1          677

4/12   20,852            8.7          1,672           7,956       1 in 4.75        720

4/13   22,025            5.6          1,173           5,033       1 in 4.3          794

105,768 Illinois have been tested, the prevalence remains within its tight range, we’re still in seventh place nationally, but the best news is, our 3.3 percent mortality rate marks the second time it’s declined in two days! That hasn’t happened before.

We’re it not for a six-day testing low, today’s 5.6 daily case percentage increase would be a stupendously good marker, but even then, it’s a very good sign.

Better yet, our five-day new case moving average also fell:

Date         5-day M Average

4/7                   1,172

4/8                   1,236

4/9                   1,214

4/10                 1,323

4/11                 1,382

4/12                 1,457

4/13                 1,386

which, when taken with all the other indicators, bodes very well.

The truth is, when all of our numbers line up this magnificently the only possibility is we’re pulling out of this! But like statistics, trends never occur in a vacuum. The second we let our guard down will be the second it all turns around.

Our good work has worked better than anyone anticipated, so let’s keep it up!

2 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – The downside beckons!

  1. I enjoy following your analysis. However, check your math, i.e. the April 10th “New Cases” should be 1,465. This affects all #’s upon which further analysis is based.

    1. Goddamn, motherfucking son of a bitch! So, now I can’t handle subtraction. Thankfully, that 20 case error will barely affect any of the associated math, but that doesn’t mean I not grateful for you catching that one!

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