The First Ward Cornavirus Report – A new low!

The First Ward Cornavirus Report – A new low!

And if it weren’t for our semi-inexplicable rising mortality rate, now at a record 4.2 percent, today’s coronavirus news would be spectacular. Though when you consider our somewhat frightening 8.5 percent national mortality rate, Illinois seems is doing alright.

It’s chart time!

Date   Cases     % Increase  N Cases   N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

4/3       8,904            15.7        1,209           4,392       1 in 3.6          210

4/4     10,357            16           1,456           5,533       1 in 4             243

4/5     11,256            8.6             899           5,402       1 in 6             274

4/6     12,262            9             1,006           3,959       1 in 4             307

4/7     13,549            10.5        1,287           5,790       1 in 4.5          380

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

4/9     16,422            9             1,344           5,791       1 in 4.3          528

4/10   17,887            8.7          1,445           6,670       1 in 4.6          596

4/11   19,180            7.2          1,293           5,252       1 in 4.1          677

4/12   20,852            8.7          1,672           7,956       1 in 4.75        720

4/13   22,025            5.6          1,173           5,033       1 in 4.3          794

4/14   23,247            5.5          1,222           4,848       1 in 4             868

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

Illinois has tested 122,589 citizens, the prevalence backed off to about 1 in 5, we had a relatively robust testing day, and we’re still in seventh place in the coronavirus state case rankings.

Facts Not Fear 4

But the best news is, despite those 5,660 new tests, our daily new case percentage indicator plummeted to a new 4.8 percent low, smashing that former 5.5 percent “resistance” level. That’s a rather a surprising 13 percent drop.

We will likely test the now upper 5.5 percent level before heading lower again.

Meanwhile, our five-day new COVID-19 case moving average fully supports our disease decelerating theory:

Date         5-day M Average

4/7                   1,172

4/8                   1,236

4/9                   1,214

4/10                 1,323

4/11                 1,382

4/12                 1,457

4/13                 1,386

4/14                 1,365

4/15                 1,342

4/16                 1,319

Once the “noise” is removed, you can clearly see the daily case decline starting on April 12. It’s not quite the downward rollercoaster ride I’d hoped for, but it’s still very good news. It certainly looks like we’re gonna sit at this peak for a while.

BTW, did you note that, since April 13, our moving average has dropped by almost exactly 20 cases a day? This kind of fascinating and unexpected order out of what appears to be chaos is one of the reasons I love statistics so much.

In light of all this evidence, Govern Pritzker and six of his Midwestern counterparts are talking about a gradual reopening of their states starting May 1, and I couldn’t agree more. I’m not sure if I’ve said it before, but we can’t let the cure become worse than the disease.

But until that return to normalcy process officially starts, we still need to keep up the good work!

 

6 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – A new low!

      1. The manner of testing is immaterial. To be more specific, Trump won’t help states unless their governors speak kindly to him. He is a narcissistic piece of shit who won’t be reelected because of his disastrous coronavirus response.

  1. One medical doctor’s opinion — I suggest that the mortality, i.e. death … (gross) numbers are going to “lag” by some 10-25 days … which means … that part of the “tally chart” WILL (most likely) not decrease until either April 22 … or even May 7 — it generally takes COVID-19 some 10-25 days to kill a person.

  2. COVID-19 does not proliferate well amidst the warmth/heat and an acidic
    Solution – MOLLOHAN treatments – as per Dr. William Mollohan
    I am a medical doctor — a treatment option is a 20 minute (highly heated/warmed reservoir within a reservoir) … think Starbucks hot … acidic (think vinegar) solution … nebulizer treatments to the face and nose MOLLOHAN — Moisturized Oxygenated Liquified Long-lasting Out-patient HEATED Aerosolized Nebulizer treatments — every 3-4 hours — a 20 minute facial/nasal TREATMENT
    This is similar to treating an asthma or COPD flare-up (exacerbation)
    Administer every 2-4 hours for some 10-14 days
    Super-warm –oxygen – acidic – moisturized (or dry?)
    William H. Mollohan, D.O. – Aurora, IL 04/17/2020

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