Quick Hits – Why the Blue Wave is Dead – Part One

Quick Hits – Why the Blue Wave is Dead – Part One

Because the Democrats killed it – all the way down to the local level.

I realize I argued the categorical converse of this contention a scant month ago, but as I’m fond of saying, when the evidence changes, so does my mind. And this has been quite the 180!

No Blue WaVE

Here’s why the Democrats are in for such a rude November awakening:

1. Incessant attacks on Donald Trump

Considering what conservatives did to Barack Obama, I was really looking forward to sitting back and watching them get a taste of their own medicine. But after two years of relentless attacks on Trump, I’ve developed a Facebook phobia.

C’mon! We all know exactly who the President is., because he makes absolutely no bones about it. And we all know that no amount of rhetoric will change his supporters’ minds, so what’s the point of persistently piling on? Other than making yourself feel a little bit better, that is.

First, it’s not an effective messaging tactic. And the lack of any real message is exactly what doomed Hillary Clinton’s presidential aspirations. I’m not saying Trump’s message was a good one, but it was a message, and it clearly resonated with enough Americans to put him in the White House.

Second, when you doggedly deride a President – or any politician for that matter – not only does it serve as a clarion call for his supporters, but it pushes those fence-sitting folks into that camp or disgusts them to the point they refuse to participate in the process.

And a lower voter turnout always favors the Republican candidate.


2. Democrats are going to vote for Democrats in 2018

But that very basic reality hasn’t stopped Illinois 14th and 6th Congressional District contenders, Lauren Underwood and Sean Casten from preaching solely to the choir.

Legendary baseball manager Sparky Anderson noted that baseball teams will win one-third of their games and lose one third of their games. It’s the middle third that matters. Though it’s a bit of an oversimplification, it’s the same with general elections.

On a level pitch, thirty-three percent of the voters will vote for you, and 33 percent will vote for your opponent. That means you have to appeal to those coveted swing voters to prevail.

But the political playing field is rarely level. The 14th is 60 percent Republican while the 6th lines up at 65 percent GOP. That means the pool of swing voters is much smaller which means Underwood and Casten have to appeal to Republicans who, on occasion,  are willing to vote for the best candidate to have any shot.

And no blue wave will be nearly enough to offset those inherent GOP advantages. If Underwood and Casten continue to fail to appeal to swing voters, then they need to make an real effort to not disaffect them.

But they’re so caught up in the current progressive mob messaging mentality that they’re not only ignoring, but downright alienating the very voters they need to win. Of course, you can’t take your base completely for granted, but they won’t be enough to win in either district.

Meanwhile, Randy Hultgren and Peter Roskam actually chastised Trump for separating immigrant families who illegally cross our southern border. Since those middle ground voters aren’t nearly as steeped in the political process, that simple message will very likely resonate with them.

And if they continue to effectively target those critical fence sitters, how can Underwood and Casten possibly win?


3. No one is liberal enough anymore

When Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey tweeted that he enjoyed a 10 percent discount at Chick-fil-A during Gay Pride month, by the liberal reaction you’d think he just referred to Caitlyn Jenner as “he!” This utterly unwarranted outrage is the newest form of progressive insanity and the blue wave is going to be the casualty.

Of course, Dorsey issued the standard mea culpa, which made this liberal want to go right out and vote a straight Republican November ticket. And if that’s my response to this insipid self-righteousness, imagine how the average moderate voter is going to react.

Making an issue of a chicken sandwich is every bit as politically silly as it sounds. Republicans can win by being divisive, but Democrats cannot. They need to be inclusive. This race to see who’s the purest progressive is completely destroying their party.


We’ll continue with part two of what may be a three-part series tomorrow or Friday!

17 thoughts on “Quick Hits – Why the Blue Wave is Dead – Part One

  1. “3. No one is liberal enough anymore”

    Shall I give you directions to Elgin’s city hall? Nine liberals, three of whom came from two picket line crossings. Two in 2015 and one who crossed in 2013. I heard we are called Bluegin now. Can you confirm?

  2. But: No one is conservative enough anymore, either! Unyielding extremist ideology on both sides has the pendulum swinging with wider sweeps every election cycle in recent times, seems to me … and all the moderates (which I believe to still be the American majority) get their heads bonked along its way. I’ve been called a “Cultural Marxist” AND a “right-wing nutjob” in the comments of the very same Facebook post. Disagree one small degree with a Progressive OR a Right-Winger, they label you as their archenemy. At this point, I don’t think any prediction for November is safe, except that by the time it rolls around, everybody will be sick to death of the political ads.

  3. I love politics was a committee man in different county years ago. Loved getting coffee in morning and talking politics. Not any more. The worst thing is the hypocrisy. If Obama did what a Trump is doing Democratics would love it. If Trump did what Obama did Republicans would love it. Neither party has a lock on truth justice and the American way. Look around keep your mind open and you might learn from someone on other side. Of course looks like the Libertarians picked a winner for governor. God help us all

  4. In the interest of bi partisan ship keeps us posted on Andersson effort for Senate seat after all he is a rhino a traitor a sell out. I wish him luck Ev Dirksen, Percy, Thompson, Lee Daniels heck even Pate Philip could not make it today as a Republican

  5. Roskam may have “chastised” Trump, but he couldn’t be bothered to stay in D.C. or even answer his phone while negotiations over the immigration bill were going on. He’s pure useless.

  6. As a non-American outsider who hears nothing about local politics, how did your prediction turn out, and if you don’t mind me asking this long after the fact, who did you vote for, or did you choose to abstain?

    1. Dear Raw,

      It was generally correct. As is almost always the case in the midterm elections, the House changes hands in massive fashion while the Senate remained in Republican hands.

      Oddly enough, it did have some effect on the local Collar County elections (the counties surrounding Chicago), such that those Democrats who ran reasonable campaigns won race they probably would’ve previously lost.

      If I recall correctly I vote for J. B. Pritzker for Illinois Governor and I’m already regretting that. I also voted for Lauren Underwood for the House, Kwame Raoul for Attorney General, and pretty much Democratic down the rest of the line.


      1. Thanks for replying. I wish you a better outcome in 2020. The world is depending on you and all Americans to return us to some kind of government that keeps us all friends, instead of turning allies into enemies.

Leave a Reply