The First Ward Cornavirus Report – Our best day yet!

The First Ward Cornavirus Report – Our best day yet!

Though the majority of the indicators were still quite positive, Friday’s record 1,842 new cases was certainly a potential cause for concern. But now it simply seems to be the best evidence of the Illinois coronavirus peak. Could it be an Easter get together blip? Perhaps. But if it was, it wasn’t nearly as bad as some folks predicted it would be.

Facts Not Fear 3

So, with the numbers lining up across the board, let’s go directly to the table!

Date   Cases   % Increase N Cases  N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

4/5     11,256            8.6             899           5,402       1 in 6             274

4/6     12,262            9             1,006           3,959       1 in 4             307

4/7     13,549            10.5        1,287           5,790       1 in 4.5          380

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

4/9     16,422            9             1,344           5,791       1 in 4.3          528

4/10   17,887            8.7          1,445           6,670       1 in 4.6          596

4/11   19,180            7.2          1,293           5,252       1 in 4.1          677

4/12   20,852            8.7          1,672           7,956       1 in 4.75        720

4/13   22,025            5.6          1,173           5,033       1 in 4.3          794

4/14   23,247            5.5          1,222           4,848       1 in 4             868

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

4/17   27,575            7.1          1,842           7,574       1 in 4.1       1,134

4/18   29,160            5.7          1,585           7,241       1 in 4.5       1,259

4/19   30,357            4.1          1,197           5,914       1 in 5          1,290

We’ve now tested 143,318 people, the prevalence is doing its thing, and Illinois continues to sit at seventh place in the state rankings. But the best news is, after a record COVID-19 daily death toll on Saturday, our mortality rate actually ticked down a notch to 4.2 percent.

And it did that because yesterday’s 31 coronavirus casualties were the fewest since 31 people perished on April 5th. The mortality rate may be a lagging indicator, but this is incredibly good news particularly when you consider our statistics in their entirety.

What’s our favorite indicator, class? That’s right! It’s the daily new case percentage increase which plummeted to a new 4.1 percent low, despite a rather robust 5,914 testing day. Our five-day moving average also resumed its downward trend:

Date         5-day M Average

4/12                 1,457

4/13                 1,386

4/14                 1,365

4/15                 1,342

4/16                 1,319

4/17                 1,353

4/18                 1,435

4/19                 1,430

But here’s the bottom line! On a rather reasonable testing day, the number of new cases actually dropped, the daily new case percentage increase hit a new low, fewer people tested actually had the disease, and at a time we’re sitting at or near the peak of this plague, the number of deaths hit the lowest mark in over two weeks.

Make no mistake! The fat lady ain’t started singin’ yet, but she is warming up. Much like it is with Newton’s First Law of Motion, a trend will stay in force unless it’s acted upon by a greater outside force. And after a very consistent month, it would take some sort of serious shift to derail this deceleration.

6 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – Our best day yet!

      1. Kanehealth.com if on a cell phone click the black arrow button and it sends you to a map of Kane (includes numbers per town). Hit it again and you can see Kane Cty specific curve.

  1. I think I saw on the News that I one of the largest testing labs didn’t send back any results yesterday for whatever reason. That is why IL new cases looked to have dropped so much yesterday. Maybe today will have an uptick again when all those missing tests are added back in to our numbers.

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