It's Duckworth, Schneider, and the 11th is still too close to call

It's Duckworth, Schneider, and the 11th is still too close to call

Since I promised you some numbers final numbers and iron-clad predictions today, that’s exactly what we’re gonna do! (Well…almost.) And, once again, we’ll start with the 11th Congressional District and the battle between Bill Foster and Judy Biggert. 
In the fightin’ 11th there were 18,508 early ballots cast as of yesterday (11/1). Here’s how they break down:
41% (6,870) have pulled a Democratic primary ballot for the last 10 years.
39% (6,657) have pulled a Republican primary ballot for the last 10 years.
20% (3,423) have only voted in the general election for the last 10 years.
While this four point swing in Foster’s favor aggravates the crap out of me, this one is still too close to call because, remember, in the heavily Democratic 11th, those general election only voters tend to be Republicans. It would not be a stretch to say two-thirds of those folks will vote for Biggert which would put her on top.
Get out and vote for Judy!
On to the 8th Congressional where, despite all that furious PAC money that’s been supporting him, we will be bidding a not-so-fond farewell to Joe Walsh. Tammy Duckworth’s lead has expanded from 7 to 9 points. Of the 28,255 early ballots cast: 
43% (11,083) have pulled a Democratic primary ballot for the last 10 years.
34% (8,911) have pulled a Republican primary ballot for the last 10 years.
23% (5,982) have only voted in the general election for the last 10 years.
So not only is momentum on Duckworth’s side, but in the heavily Republican Schaumburg area, the general election only folks are Democrats. Duckworth wins this one easily.
With those races playing out pretty much as expected, I thought we’d cover at least one potential shocker in another bitter PAC fueled pitched battle – the north shore 10th Congressional race between GOP incumbent Bob Dold and Brad Schneider.  
With 43,083 early votes cast:
47% (19,210) have pulled a Democratic primary ballot for the last 10 years.
31% (12,743) have pulled a Republican primary ballot for the last 10 years.
21% (8,673) have only voted in the general election for the last 10 years.
Now, the 10th, which includes Wilmette, Arlington Heights, Libertyville and Waukegan, is the stomping grounds of my youth and, all Waukegan voters aside, it doesn’t get any more Republican than that. This is the vicinity that gave us Joe Walsh. So what the heck did to Bob Dold do? Personally perform a same-sex marriage ceremony?
In fact, I was so flabbergasted by these numbers that I actually resorted to reviewing one of those vastly unscientific Patch Polls. This one was posted in the Republican bastions of Willmette, Libertyville, Northbrook, Deerfield, Winnetka, Glencoe, and Kenilworth and Schneider is still kicking butt. 
Though I wish I could scientifically wade in on the Kane County Coroner’s race, with the Democratic Martinez seriously courting the GOP crossover vote, the system won’t work. That said, when you consider the inroads he”s made along with so many Rob Russell missteps, if Martinez can energize the Elgin and Aurora Hispanic vote next Tuesday, he will prevail.
If there’s another race you’d like me to perform this kind of magic 0n, please let me know and I’ll do my best to come up with the numbers.

9 thoughts on “It's Duckworth, Schneider, and the 11th is still too close to call

  1. Jim,
    Though I would like nothing more than to give credit where credit is due, I am not at liberty to divulge this source. I’m sure you have your suspicions, but should you post them here I will delete them forthwith!
    Jeff

  2. Not saying you should, but the rest of the users should. He has been called more things and the truth be told he is a hard working man that stands for the good of our society. What an asset to the people, if they only knew.

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