The First Ward Coronavirus Report – Our best day yet!

Happy strange Easter!

Before we get started class, grocery shopping at the St. Charles Meijer around 2 p.m. yesterday was quite the surreal experience. With 55 percent of the shoppers wearing all manner of masks, the store looked like something straight out of a Stephen King novel. Well, either that or the much more amusing possibility that Christo just went small scale!

(There’s a shiny new dime in it for any reader who can explain the second reference.)

Though the sight of so many shoppers with noses and mouths obscured was more than a bit eerie, yesterday’s Illinois coronavirus numbers were a source of some serious optimism. So, let’s get right to our updated table:

Date   Cases   % Increase N Cases  N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

3/18     288

3/19     422               46.5           134                           1 in 14

3/20     585               37              163                           1 in 12

3/21     753               29              296                           1 in 7

3/22     1,049            39              896                           1 in 2

3/23     1,285            28              236                           1 in 8

3/24     1,535            22.5           250                           1 in 8

3/25     1,855            21.5           320                           1 in 6

3/26     2,538            37              683                           1 in 6

3/27     3,026            19              488                           1 in 8

3/28     3,491            15.4           465                           1 in 8

3/29     4,596            31.6        1,105                           1 in 4               65

3/30     5,056            10              460           2,684       1 in 6               72

3/31     5,994            18.5           938           4,779       1 in 5               90

4/1       6,980            16.5           986           5,159       1 in 5             141

4/2       7,695            10.2           715           3,272       1 in 4.6          157

4/3       8,904            15.7        1,209           4,392       1 in 3.6          210

4/4     10,357            16           1,456           5,533       1 in 4             243

4/5     11,256            8.6             899           5,402       1 in 6             274

4/6     12,262            9             1,006           3,959       1 in 4             307

4/7     13,549            10.5        1,287           5,790       1 in 4.5          380

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

4/9     16,422            9             1,344           5,791       1 in 4.3          528

4/10   17,887            8.7          1,445           6,670       1 in 4.6          596

4/11   19,180            7.2          1,293           5,252       1 in 4.1          677

We’ve tested 92,779 Illinoisans, the prevalence remains within its tight range, and our mortality        bumped up a bit to 3.5 percent, still somewhat below the national 3.8 percent average. Meanwhile, Florida and Illinois continue to bounce between eighth and ninth place in the state coronavirus rankings.

But what’s our best news class? That’s right!

Despite a rather robust testing result day, the latest 7.2 daily case increase percentage shattered our previous 8.6 percent low by a rather surprising 16 percent! Put more simply, Illinois’ social distancing effort is stopping the coronavirus in its tracks!

Again, the fact that the total number of cases isn’t a real measure of anything comes as a small solace to anyone who has the disease, but by now we know the real measure of a pandemic is how quickly it’s spreading.

Harkening back to a previous report, given COVID-19’s relatively contagious 2.3 R0, or R-naught, without any countermeasures, Illinois’ 11,256 April 5^th coronavirus sufferers could’ve y infected 46,000 new victims over the course of the next six days, the optimum incubation period.

But April 11^th’s case total wasn’t nearly that bad.

It’s still a bit too early to call it a trend, but despite a massively increased testing effort and that looming coronavirus peak, watching our daily new case numbers generally subside since April 8 is quite promising:

4/8       1,529

4/9       1,344

4/11     1,445

4/12     1,292

It’s not a perfect descent, but it never is.

Please note how the “highs” (4/8 and 4/11) and the lows (4/9 and 4/12) are both trending downward. Per another previous First Ward report, if those numbers stay within that “channel” for another three or four days, it will become a statistically significant downward trend.

I’ll certainly be waiting for today’s 2:30 numbers with bated breath.

But just like it is with statistics, our decelerating COVID-19 curve does not exist in a vacuum – it’s the result of all of our hard work. To that end, I hope each and every one of you enjoys a safe Easter celebration because, as that great philosopher Warren Zevon once put it, the alternative “aint that pretty at all!”

We may not be able to get together, but my wife’s family and I will be doing the Zoom thing this afternoon and then I’ll make our first annual traditional Easter nachos (long story). I hope you get to sit down to a similar savory feast.

We’re beating this thing people! So, let’s keep up the good work!