I reject your reality and substitute my own! – Mythbuster Adam Savage
It happens every goddamn election cycle no matter how small the stakes. At least one idiotic candidate (I know that doesn’t narrow it down very much) clings to the fantasy of making up a one-, two-, or even three-point deficit by refusing to concede until all those post-election absentee ballots are counted.
But as we’ve already argued ad nauseam, those votes never change anything, particularly in a primary.
Wouldn’t you think a politician whose professional life depends upon math would understand the most basic concepts therein? Of course not. Like a whiny, sugar-addled sixth grader who played video games instead of studying for the test, they make a complete fool of themselves by insisting the numbers will magically bend to their will, as if arithmetic was just more “fake news” instead of a reality to be reckoned with.
And the winner of this year’s having-a-hissy-fit dunce cap is none other than our own 25th District State Senator Karina Villa.
You remember Karina. She’s the one who’s mistaken a Kane County Democratic Party tailwind for talent, as if being in the right place at the right time were skill instead of sheer luck. Juliana Stratton may be an empty seat, but Villa’s mere presence creates the kind of political vacuum that really does suck.
A failure to accomplish anything worthwhile is one thing, but doing your damnedest to undermine the very process that put you there is something else entirely.
As of this morning (3/19), Villa is staring squarely into a stark 27,000-vote deficit, a margin clearly establishing State Rep Margaret Croke as the Democratic comptroller nominee. But rather than accept reality, citing 88,000 outstanding Cook County vote-by-mail ballots, she petulantly declared, “This election is not over.”
But it is.
So, let’s do the basic math that seems to have eluded and eminently egotistical and intellectually challenged candidate.
First, she’ll be lucky if half of those Chicago ballots come in, but for argument’s sake, let’s say 44,000 of them do miraculously appear within the allotted grace period. In order for Villa to pull off the upset of the century, she’ll need 81 percent of those ballots to go her way. That’s what we campaign managers call a statistical impossibility.
Repeat after me, class! “With very rare exception, absentee ballots ALWAYS break the SAME way the election vote broke.” And Croke has already gained 3,000 votes as the counting continues.
Worse yet for our remedial math student, the exact number is difficult to determine, but thousands of conservative downstate absentee ballots likely favoring Croke have yet to be tallied. Now Villa will need 100 percent of that late Chicago and Collar County vote to prevail.
Not even Mayor Daley the Elder and his vaunted ‘60s Chicago Machine could pull that kind of thing off.
As a successful campaign manager, I know how difficult it is to concede a close election after you’ve worked your butt off for so long. But there’s a vast difference between a bullheadedness borne of ignorance and ego, and the basic competence and emotional maturity to be able to admit when you’ve lost.
Normally, I’d end a column like this by encouraging someone, anyone, to step up and run for her senate seat. But I’ve learned that most folks are far more comfortable whispering their complaints than actually doing anything about them.
Which leaves us here.
The votes have been counted. The math has been done. The outcome is no longer in doubt. The only question remaining is whether Senator Villa will ever grow up.
