The First Ward Report – A brief coronavirus update!

Since the press is redoubling their pandemic panic porn efforts, I thought it would be the perfect to provide my adoring throng with a brief but pithy coronavirus update. So, let’s get right to the most recent numbers:

Date   Cases   % Increase  N Cases     N Tested   Prevalence  Deaths 

5/20     100,418         2.4         2,388         21,029       1 in 8.8       4,525

5/21     102,686         2.2         2,268         29,036       1 in 13        4,607

5/22     105,444         2.6         2,758         25,113       1 in 9.1       4,715

5/23     107,796         2.2         2,352         25,114       1 in 10.6     4,790

5/24     110,304         2.3         2,508         25,675       1 in 10.2     4,856

5/25     112,017         1.5         1,713         21,643       1 in 12.6     4,884

5/26     113,195         1.0         1,178         17,230       1 in 14.6     4,923

5/27     114,306         0.9         1,111         17,179       1 in 15.4     5,083

5/28     115,833         1.3         1,527         25,993       1 in 17        5,186

5/29     117,455         1.4          1,622         21,796      1 in 13.4     5,270

5/30     118,917         1.2         1,462         25,343       1 in 17.3     5,330

5/31     120,260         1.1         1,343         21,154       1 in 15.7     5,390

6/1       121,234         0.8            974         20,014       1 in 20.5     5,412

6/2       122,848         1.3         1,614         16,432       1 in 10.1     5,525

6/3       123,830         0.7            982         24,471       1 in 25        5,621

6/4       124,759         0.7            929         22,841       1 in 24.5     5,736

6/5       125,915         0.9         1,156         18,903       1 in 16.3     5,795

6/6       126,890         0.7            975         21,115       1 in 21.6     5,864

6/7       127,757         0.6            867         20,700       1 in 23.8     5,904

6/8       128,415         0.5            658         16,099       1 in 24.4     5,924

6/9       129,212         0.6            797         20,209       1 in 25.4     6,018

6/10     129,837         0.4            625         20,820       1 in 33.3     6,095

As you can clearly see, not only is there the abject lack of any Illinois COVID-19 protest spike, but we’re looking at a consistently progressing case of herd immunity.

1. Mortality rate

The Illinois mortality rate has increased from 4.4 to 4.6 percent, but that’s a temporary phenomenon. Remember! COVID-19 deaths are a two-week lagging indicator that, when combined with a consistently decreasing number of daily cases, creates an artificial bump that will flatten out when that indicator “catches up.”

2. New daily case percentage increase

This measure of the disease’s acceleration hit a rather surprising new pandemic low of 0.4 percent yesterday, which supports the WHO’s recent pronouncement that asymptomatic coronavirus “sufferers” don’t spread the disease. Given COVID-19’s seven to ten-day incubation sweet spot, the protests clearly did NOT propel the pandemic. This, of course, begs the question, why are we still cancelling all those amazing outdoor summer concerts and events when the evidence clearly comes down on the side of letting the show go on?

3. New daily cases

We don’t need t a five-day moving average to see that we’ve only had one four-figure stat in the last eight days. And that’s true despite the continued robust Illinois testing effort!

4. Prevalence

We set a new record here, too! It took a massive 33.3 test results to get just one positive result, yesterday. I saw my allergist today, and he wholeheartedly agreed the only explanation for this massive prevalence retreat is herd immunity. And herd immunity is the only eventuality that will finally put a stake in the pandemic’s heart.

5. Daily Deaths

The daily coronavirus death toll for the last six days looks like this:

59, 69, 40, 20, 94, 77

and with a steadily decreasing number of new cases, that sad statistic is only going to get better.

6. ICU beds and ventilators

Both hit new lows yesterday as well. COVID-19 occupied ICU beds decreased to 706, a 45 percent decline over the late March high, while ventilator usage dropped to 395, a 50 percent improvement over the same period.

So, Illinois is doing quite well! Meanwhile, please don’t buy into the bleepingly insistent recent news stories claiming we’re facing all sorts of sudden coronavirus spikes, because we’re not!

Some states have seen “high percentage” increases, but even CNN admitted it was mainly the result of increased testing, and those states’ numbers were so low at that time, there was bound to be some sort of rebound effect. Not only that, but a great deal of those new cases – and deaths – continue to come in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.

And how many of those “spike” cases are of the asymptomatic variety?

Is the pandemic over? Nope! Should our older citizens with preexisting conditions throw off their shelter-in-place shackles and throw caution to the wind? Nope! But for the rest of us, the news is far better than even I thought it could possibly be at this point.

We embarked upon this mathematical journey back on March 19, and the numbers have never failed us. Critical thinking truly is a rare but magnificent thing!

Stay safe!