Early election night predictions

Early election night predictions

Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham just dropped the early/VBM voting numbers and here are The First Ward’s prediction based on those numbers. Remember, with the Democrat’s propensity to avail themselves of vote-by-mail ballots and the Republican’s tendency to hit the polls on election day, it’s no surprise that the Dems are leading in most races.

So, here goes:

1. Statewide

To absolutely no one’s surprise Pritzker, Raoul, Giannoulias, Mendoza, and Frerichs will prevail. Until the Republican figure out a way to stop electing terrible primary candidates this dynamic will not change.

2. Congress

No one can beat Tammy Duckworth, Bill Foster will dispense with Catalina Lauf who’s doing her best to set the record for election losses, Raja Wins, and Gryder’s a little closer to Underwood than I expected, but there ain’t that much of the 14th in Kane County so it’s too early to call.

3. General Assembly

Sadly, if Villa can do this well in Kane County, she will likely be reelected. Linda Holmes will retain her seat as will Maura Hirschauer and the other obvious Dem incumbents. Ugaste will catch up with a pass Robertson. I’m a little worried about Keith Wheeler, but the 83rd has been so badly gerrymandered that it’s too early to call that one, too.

4. Kane County-wides

Though County Clerk Jack Cunningham took a laid-back campaign approach, he’s doing better than any KC Republican in a comparable race. Put more simply, he will beat Nico Jimenez – again.

Lauzen is a bit further behind Pripusich in the treasurer’s race than I thought he’d be, but I don’t think the Democrat will be able to retain his lead. Meanwhile, Ron Hain is up by an insurmountable 19,000 votes with early voting and two precincts reporting.

5. Kane County Board

Those winners will include Bill Lennert, Mavis Bates, Ron Ford, Michelle Gumz, Bill Roth, Mark Davoust, David Young, Mike Kenyon, Deborah Allen, Rick Williams, and Cherryl Strathmann.

It also looks good for Cliff Surges, Jeff Meyer, Jarett Sanchez, and Greg Buck. The rest are too close to call at this early stage.

6. Constitutional Amendments

The Worker’s Rights Amendment will go down in flames.


That’s it for tonight. The First Ward will perform their traditional post-election analysis next Tuesday.

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