The First Ward Coronavirus Report – As good as it’s gonna get!

Yep! It’s that time! Let’s, once again, debunk the abject COVID-19 bull guano the “mainstream” media persists in printing. And that process always starts with the numbers, or as I like to refer to them, “the evidence:”

Date  Cases          % Inc      N Cases      Tested     Prevalence  Deaths    M%

8/17   207,854          0.8          1,773         38,246       1 in 21.5     7,756       3.7

8/18   209,594          0.8          1,740         34,175       1 in 19.6     7,782       3.7

8/19   211,889          1.0          2,295         50,299       1 in 21.9     7,806       3.6

8/20   213,721          0.8          1,832         51,612       1 in 28.1     7,833       3.6

8/21   215,929          1.0          2,208         51,736       1 in 23.4     7,857       3.6

8/22   218,285          1.0          2,356         56,766       1 in 24.1     7,874       3.6

8/23   220,178          0.8          1,893         54,351       1 in 28.7     7,880       3.5

8/24   221,790          0.7          1,612         36,155       1 in 22.4     7,888       3.5

8/25   223,470          0.7          1,680         40,859       1 in 24.3     7,917       3.5

8/26   225,627          0.9          2,157         50,362       1 in 23.3     7,954       3.5

8/27   227,334          0.7          1,707         44,510       1 in 26.0     7,977       3.5

8/28   229,483          0.9          2,149         48,383       1 in 22.5     7,997       3.4

8/29   231,363          0.8          1,880         48,784       1 in 25.9     8,008       3.4

8/30   233,355          0.8          1,992         43,693       1 in 21.9     8,019       3.4

8/31   235,023          0.7          1,668         47,379       1 in 28.4     8,026       3.4

9/1     236,515          0.6          1,492         22,961       1 in 15.3     8,064       3.4

9/2     238,643          0.8          2,128         32,751       1 in 15.3     8,091       3.3

9/3     240,003          0.5          1,360         40,795       1 in 29.9     8,115       3.3

9/4     245,371          2.2          5,368       149,273       1 in 27.8     8,143       3.3

9/5     248,177          1.1          2,806         61,935       1 in 22.0     8,166       3.2

9/6     249,580          0.5          1,403         46,496       1 in 33.1     8,171       3.2

9/7     250,961          0.5          1,380         28,975       1 in 20.9     8,179       3.2

9/8     252,353          0.5          1,392         31,363       1 in 22.5     8,186       3.2

As of yesterday, Illinois claims to have tested 4,478,710 of its citizens.

1. Testing results shenanigans

I’m sure my crack deputy statisticians have already noted that our testing result range has gotten a wee bit nutty, moving from an inexplicable 22,961 low on September 1 to an insane record 149,273 high on September 4. It was quite clear that something wuz awry on September 1 and 2 because you won’t see a 50 percent testing crash without some sort of mitigating circumstance.

My more cynical friends believe Illinois held test results back to scare folks into “behaving” over the Labor Day weekend, but I’m convinced it was a vast and continuing incompetency that led to this purported backlog.

The problem is, the press, and particularly the shameless Daily Herald, ran with that artificial 5,368 new case “spike” headline, only explaining the testing anomaly in the much smaller print below.

And this test reporting absurdity renders many of our statistics temporarily meaningless, too – and “meaningless” is a word we’re gonna use a lot today!

2. Daily percentage new case increase

That number mildly increased throughout August, but now it’s right back down to it’s rock bottom 0.5 percent. And since the plague ain’t goin’ anywhere anytime soon, this is as good as it’s gonna get.

3. The prevalence tells the story

Again, discounting the contrived September 1, 2, 4, and 5 stats, our steady 1 in 24.6 average prevalence tells it all. If you test 1,000 Illinoisans, 40 will have the virus. That too, appears to be a rock bottom number that won’t further recede until herd immunity truly kicks in – if it hasn’t already.

4. The “infection rate” is meaningless

This is the State’s favorite stat and the press loves it, too, but it’s beyond misleading. Until and unless you test every last Illinoisan, the only thing the “infection rate” measures is the number of folks with COVID who CHOSE to be tested. And that’s the prevalence, which as we’ve already noted, is quite good.

5. Local “spikes” that aren’t necessarily spikes

This is another facet of local “journalism” that frosts my cookies. If you report, as the DH did today, that DuPage County is experiencing a recent coronavirus “spike,” but you don’t report the number of tests tallied in that region, it’s completely – you got it – meaningless!

Worse yet, the fact that a young healthy person catches the disease is also meaningless because they’ll be utterly asymptomatic, so they have no undue impact on our health care capacity. And wasn’t that the whole point?

Don’t give me that “they’ll take it home to their grandparents” BS, either, because, according to those fine Census folks, only 2 percent of American homes contain a grandparent. That has to be one of the biggest BS arguments I’ve ever heard, and I regularly interview politicians.

6. The mortality rate is still the best news

That, of course, means the press refuses to report the steep decline from a 4.8 percent high on July 4, to just 3.2 percent yesterday. Remove those utterly unnecessary 4,445 COVID deaths in long-term care facilities and the Illinois mortality rate would plummet to just 1.4 percent.

That steep decline is likely a result of more young people being infected combined with a clearly waning pandemic lethality.

Add the CDC’s declaration that 94 percent of coronavirus casualties had a co-morbidity factor, and this press and progressive-based pandemic panic porn is one of the biggest frauds ever perpetrated on the American public. Healthy people under 70 do not die from the disease.

Trust me, more than a few political heads will roll in the 2021 through 2024 elections.

7. No back-to-school spike!

I know it’s hard to believe, but progressives got it wrong again! Despite a smattering of Illinois school districts and all private schools being back in in-person session, not only has the predicted COVID “spike” failed to materialize, but the number of new cases is actually trending downward.

Even if you consider the testing craziness of September 3 and 4, a correctly weighted September daily new case average comes out to a scant 1,575, which is beyond statistically significant when all the “experts” were expecting a back-to-school spike.

7. The only stat that matters!

Remember when the whole point of these now pointless COVID restrictions was to give our medical professional time to get ahead of the pandemic and prevent a run on ventilators? How many times do I have to say, “mission accomplished:”

Date   ICU Beds   Ventilators

9/1          362               146

9/2          347               142

9/3          360               144

9/4          360               155

9/5          363               151

9/6          356               134

9/7          352               137

9/8          343               133

Those Illinois COVID-19 occupied hospital beds and ventilator numbers are as flat as they ever were. Put more simply, our hospitals ICUs are nowhere near capacity and they never will be.


If you add up these facts – and they are facts – for all intents and purposes, the pandemic is over and we need to get back to living our lives. And if you’ve seen the Geneva Commons on any recent Saturday, I’m not nearly the only one who’s come to that conclusion.

I’ll happily wear my Mandalorian mask at Meijer if for no other reason than my adoring throng won’t be able to recognize me. But beyond that, we don’t need progressives or politicians to tell us what’s best for the rest for us. I’ve gotten along for 62 long years without those bleeps, so they may as well save their intercessions for themselves.

Like many other Americans, that taking care of myself process will not include any rushed vaccine, particularly when you consider the deleterious effects of previous inoculations which ultimately led to some rather serious long-term effects. Bring on herd immunity! It’s the only thing that’s ever ended a pandemic and it’s the only thing that will end this one.

7 thoughts on “The First Ward Coronavirus Report – As good as it’s gonna get!

  1. Vaccination is how you get to here immunity.

    • It’s one way to get to herd immunity, but depending upon the efficacy of a new vaccine, it’s probably the riskiest way. It may not even work with COVID-19 and some experts claim the antibodies disappear after just a couple months, either. And trust, me I will NOT be taking a vaccine four times a year.

  2. I saw this on FB. I stopped following you a long time ago after we got into it. This is different. You have changed your style? A very entertaining and well put together read. Good research also. I really appreciate the effort. I have to say, yours are the first numbers I actually believe…Again thanks.

    • Oh! I remember Hollyce! And in the words of that great philosopher Steve Winwood, “I’m the same boy I used to be.” And in some cases, my writing has become even more pointed. But the simple reason you like me now is because you despise progressives as much as I do. I’m still the same classic Evanston blue dog liberal, too!


  3. You don’t understand comorbidity and Covid.

    People may have had preexisting and chronic conditions that had an impact, but the official cause of death is still Covid (and despite the press about the inevitable misclassification/errors around a handful, there’s no evidence to suggest that CoD is incorrect in the vast majority of cases). Moreover, many people who died had chronic issues which weren’t imminently fatal. Examples include people with diabetes or high BP whose average lifespan would have been in the decades if not for Covid.

    Additionally, Covid itself caused / made worse a fair number of the comorbidities. Think of HIV as a similar example, where the impact of the virus destroys your body’s immunities, resulting in comorbidities like infections, cancer, pneumonia, etc.

    Classic case of working back from your hypothesis, incorrectly understanding comorbidity, and then coming to the conclusion you intended to reach in the first place (regardless of evidence to the contrary).

    • J.

      WRONG! You’re trying to work in reverse, and that’s exactly the argument that progressives are using to try use to maintain their current, but ultimately fleeting, political power. And you were kind enough to prove my point, too!

      If it weren’t for their diabetes, which many victims brought on themselves, COVID WOULD NOT have killed them. Yes! The cause of death was the coronavirus because they certainly would’ve lived longer were they not infected, but more importantly, they wouldn’t have died if they didn’t have heart disease, diabetes, or were obese – most of which are eminently preventable. Even 45 percent of cancer deaths were preventable.

      How can you not see that? Without that underlying medical condition, they’d still be alive today – it’s not the converse. That’s why only 40 Illinoisans under 29 have perished from COVID-19. Far more of that age group died from the 2017-18 flu (the exact numbers are in a previous column.)

      The bottom line is, 94 percent of people who died from the pandemic had a major co-morbidity factor and 86 to 90 percent of them were over 65. So why are we imposing absurd restrictions on bars and restaurants when we know EXACTLY who this thing kills.

      I stand by what I wrote.


  4. Thanks again for the facts, just the facts. I’ve been watching the numbers daily and always look forward to your updates.

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