The First Ward Coronavirus Report – We’re still good!

Since we haven’t done a coronavirus report in a while and this is gonna be a long one, let’s get right to it:

Date  Cases          % Inc      N Cases      Tested     Prevalence  Deaths    M%

7/29   175,124          0.8          1,393         38,187       1 in 27.4     7,462       4.2

7/30   176,896          1.0          1,772         41,134       1 in 23.2     7,478       4.2

7/31   178,837          1.0          1,941         49,782       1 in 25.6     7,495       4.1

8/1     180,476          0.9          1,639         39,809       1 in 24.2     7,503       4.1

8/2     181,943          0.8          1,467         38,945       1 in 26.5     7,517       4.1

8/3     183,241          0.7          1,298         28,475       1 in 21.9     7,526       4.1

8/4     184,712          0.8          1,471         42,598       1 in 28.9     7,545       4.0

8/5     186,471          0.9          1,759         46,668       1 in 26.5     7,573       4.0

8/6     188,424          1.0          1,953         41,686       1 in 21.3     7,594       4.0

8/7     190,508          1.1          2,084         46,869       1 in 22.4     7,613       3.9

8/8     192,698          1.1          2,190         48,016       1 in 21.9     7,631       3.9

8/9     194,080          0.7          1,382         41,354       1 in 29.9     7,636       3.9

8/10   195,399          0.6          1,319         32.353       1 in 24.5     7,637       3.9

8/11   196,948          0.7          1,549         41,362       1 in 26.7     7,657       3.8

8/12   198,593          0.6          1,205         42,098       1 in 34.9     7,672       3.8

8/13   200,427          0.7          1,474         46,006       1 in 31.2     7,696       3.8

8/14   202,691          1.1          2,264         49,541       1 in 21.8     7,721       3.8

8/15   204,519          0.9          1,818         44,414       1 in 24.2     7,726       3.7

8/16   206,081          0.7          1,562         37,089       1 in 23.7     7,744       3.7

Illinois has officially tested 3,366,851 citizens as a result of that daily process regularly topping the 40,000 mark. With that stipulation, let’s move on to our official statistical analysis:

1. There is no spike!

And we know this because, despite the Governor’s consistent crying wolf, the prevalence continues to revolve around 1 in 25. If Illinois tests 1,000 people, they get 40 positive results, and that FACT hasn’t changed since July 15.

That means our social unrest, Illinois bars and restaurants reopening, and the utter lack of social distance anywhere have had absolutely NO effect on our COVID-19 case numbers which are as flat as they’re going to get.

2. Transmission rates remain low

Yes! We managed to hit the 1 percent new daily case percentage increase mark for the first time since June third. But a 1.1 percent transmission rate is nothing to fret about, particularly when you recall it was once over 100 percent.

3. We are not “going in the wrong direction”

Pritzker’s newest favorite proclamation is patently false. The only reason we’re seeing a minor daily new case increase is the Illinois testing average for this data period rounds out to a rather robust 42,000. There was a time we thought 6,000 tests was something just short of a miracle.

4. The Illinois mortality rate is plummeting

In fact, it’s fallen right off the cliff from a high of 4.8 percent on July 3rd to just 3.7 percent last week. And when you consider that over 50 percent of Illinois COVID deaths have come in nursing homes and long-term care facilities, that puts our real mortality rate a lot closer to 1.5 percent.

That may be nothing to write home about, but it’s not nearly as bad as the pandemic panic porn press would have you believe. I’m sure there’s more than one factor involved here, but I’m going with the European doctors who believe the pathogen has far less bite that it once did.

5. The five-day moving average is quite flat

Thanks to reader Tom, I now know the terms “moving”, “rolling” and “running” average are interchangeable. And while it may look like our five-day average is trending up:

Date                Cases

7/29                 1,334

7/30                 1,403

7/31                 1,483

8/1                   1,565

8/2                   1,643

8/3                   1,624

8/4                   1,564

8/5                   1,527

8/3                   1,624

8/4                   1,564

8/5                   1,527

8/6                   1,590

8/7                   1,713

8/8                   1,892

8/9                   1,874

8/10                 1,786

8/11                 1,529

8/12                 1,384

8/13                 1,563

8/14                 1,664

8/15                 1,662

8/16                 1,665

it’s not! If you correctly weighted that Illinois’ increased testing, you’d quickly note this indicator is even flatter than our local Northern Illinois terrain.

6. Someone’s playing with the COVID occupied ICU bed numbers

Date   ICU Beds     Ventilators     

7/29          353             149

7/30          346             148

8/1            334             148

8/2            339              126

8/3            347             132

8/4            365             125

8/5            368             129

8/6            346             132

8/7            333             125

8/8            338              135

8/9            322             114

8/10          352             138

8/11          336             127

8/12          357             129

8/13          383             127

8/14          345             126

8/15          330             127

8/16          345             116

And we know something’s wrong because, after the ICU bed indicator permanently dropped below 400 on July 1st, it generally hasn’t increased or decreased by more than ten a day. But suddenly since August 4, we’re seeing 30 bed swings, and it just doesn’t work that way.

Patients who have a severe enough COVID case to go into the ICU don’t just come out the next day. And it ain’t a result of people dying, either, because the average daily Illinois death toll during this data period is just 15.6.

But the icing on my fudging-the-numbers contention is the ICU bed and ventilator numbers are no longer nearly as correlated as they’ve been since the beginning. With the exception of the obviously incorrect August 9 ventilator number, we’re within easy striking distance of tying or breaking that record low, while coronavirus ICU bed usage has ticked slightly upward.

I’m not sayin’ someone’s doing something on purpose, and it could simply be a matter of a new counting criteria, but that bed number ain’t right right now!

But even if that stat is a bit off, those hospital indicators have dropped by a whopping 73 and 85 percent, respectively. Remember! Before this pandemic got so fricken’ political, our collective goal was to prevent the Illinois health care system from collapsing under the weight of COVID patients, and despite our Governor’s worst efforts, we’ve succeeded magnificently.

So, when you consider this plague isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, the Governor’s new goal seems to be a wreaking a vast economic destruction for no good reason. At this point, there’s no reason not to reopen the state with the understanding that people will inevitably do what’s right for them.

But if you continue to beat them over the head they will continue to rebel!

With the eminently loony Dr. Fauci recently declaring the first iterations of any vaccine will only be marginally effective, much as Sweden has, we need to get on with herd immunity as soon as reasonably possible because this overly absurd “cure” has become so much worse than the disease.

It certainly appears that Sweden got their pandemic plan right!

To sum it up:

  1. Not only has there been no Illinois coronavirus spike, but I’d bet some serious money that those back-to-school naysayers will turn out to be wrong – again.
  2. Illinois is not moving in the “wrong direction!” In fact, as we predicted, the pandemic isn’t currently moving in any direction. If you test 1,000 Illinoisans, 40 will have the plague.
  3. The mortality rate is declining at an almost statistically impossible rate, which bodes quite well going forward.
  4. Unless the pandemic inexplicably becomes exponentially more pernicious, the Illinois health care network has been beyond spared. That should mean mission accomplished.

But aside from our howling and shrieking progressive nanny-staters’ blind determination to blatantly ignore the facts, combined with their deep and irresistible desire to regularly declare what’s right for the rest of us, can anyone tell me what the Illinois pandemic plan is at this point?

Because I’d really like to know!

 

7 thoughts on “The First Ward Coronavirus Report – We’re still good!

  1. Great stuff. Please shout it from the rooftops!

  2. As always, great explanations. I’ve been tracking on a daily basis since you stopped reporting on it daily. I even noted dates to watch for spikes to start due to a) protests, b) opening businesses, and c) 4th of July. Thank you, Jeff! You’ve got a fan here!

  3. One major mistake. 7 day moving average case per test has moved up from 3.06% on July 15th to 4.17% on August 17th. And this is with anyone with symptoms or without symptoms now being able to get tests. That Jeff amounts to about a 33% increase.

    • Thomas,

      Though you’re technically correct, particularly by weighting the tests correctly, I’m still more correct, because you’re falling into what I call the “quantum physics trap” of statistics. Here’s a perfect example!

      Let’s say, like George Benson ‘On Broadway,’ I have “one thin dime” to my name. Then, two days later, I’m walking down Chicago Street in Elgin and I find another dime sittin’ on the sidewalk. So now, do I really have the credibility to do an infomercial on “How I doubled my wealth in just two days?” Technically, I’m telling the truth, but there’s gonna be a lot of disappointed customers when they figure out my “doubled” wealth amounts to a mere 20 cents!

      Put more simply, when you’re dealing with very small numbers, the percent changes are greatly magnified, and much like the Theory of Relativity breaks down at the quantum level, you have to take a different statistical approach.

      Jeff

  4. I took the Covind Saliva Test a month ago (Negative); but it sounds like the saliva test was just approved this week.??

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