The First Ward Coronavirus Report – Illinois is just fine!

Can anyone tell me what specific electromagnetic law stipulates smoke detector batteries MUST expire only between 2 and 3 a.m? One terrified dog and two errant attempts to identify the chirping culprit later and I finally found – and silenced – the right one. And then the cat started yowling just for good measure!

So, since I’m a little tired this morning, let’s go with a quick and easy COVID-19 report. The current numbers are:

Date  Cases          % Inc      N Cases      Tested     Prevalence Deaths    M%

7/20   162,748          0.7          1,173         34,598      1 in 29.4          6         4.4

7/21   163,703          0.5             955         29,745       1 in 31.1       23         4.4

7/22   165,301          0.9          1,598         39,633       1 in 24.8       23         4.4

7/23   166,925          0.9          1,624         39,706       1 in 24.4       20         4.4

7/24   168,457          0.9          1,532         44,330       1 in 28.9       18         4.3

7/25   169,883          0.8          1,426         38,200       1 in 26.7       12         4.3

7/26   171,424          0.9          1,541         40,844       1 in 26.5         1         4.3

7/27   172,655          0.7          1,231         30,567       1 in 24.8       18         4.2

7/28   173,731         0.6           1,076         28,331       1 in 26.3       30         4.2

If I had to apply a song title to this nine-day data slice, it would be Bob Seeger’s ‘Still the Same!’ New cases are flat, the new case percentage increase hasn’t topped 1 percent since June 2nd,  the prevalence is bouncing between 1 in 25 and 1 in 30, coronavirus deaths continue to trend downward, and as we predicted, the Illinois mortality rate is in full retreat!

Facts Not Fear 3

Should you, like the pandemic panic porn prone press, fear our state is in the throes of some sort of COVID-19 spike, all you have to do is gaze upon the prevalence to immediately disavow yourself of that notion.

When we test more people, we get more positive results – it’s just that simple! Clearly, reopening restaurants, bars and other similar establishments has had absolutely no effect on our new daily case totals or the transmission rate of the disease.

As we predicted, once nursing homes and long-term care facilities finally got a handle on this thing, the Illinois mortality rate has fallen from it’s early July high of 4.8 percent to 4.2 percent. And it will continue to decline.

We’ve also discussed how it’s an evolutionary maladaptation for a communicable disease to kill it’s host because it’s the equivalent of pathogen suicide. Considering that logic, my and a number of Italian Doctors’ contention is that the virus weakening. The declining national mortality rate and COVID ICU bed and ventilator usage remaining near their lows would seem to support that theory, but American researchers say it’s not the case.

You’ll have to come to your own conclusion on this one.

Meanwhile the Illinois ICU/ventilator numbers are even better:

Date       ICU Beds          Ventilators

7/20          320                         142

7/21          337                         132

7/22          309                         135

7/23          325                         115

7/24          341                         110

7/25          345                         119

7/26          350                         124

7/27          329                         128

Not only are we far from capacity in this regard, but every time a number pops, it seems to go right back down the very next day.

With testing settling into a 36,000-daily result average, the five-day moving average has become meaningful again, too:

Date             5-day Avg

7/20                 1,213

7/21                 1,153

7/22                 1,194

7/23                 1,263

7/24                 1,377

7/25                 1,427

7/26                 1,427

7/27                 1,471

7/28                 1,362

The press is using the term “rolling average” which ain’t what it’s called! Regardless, we’re looking at data that’s even flatter than the local Northern Illinois landscape.

So, despite the Governor consistently crying wolf, and considering this thing ain’t going away anytime soon, Illinois is doing far better than I thought possible at this five-month stage. With at bar and restaurant comebacks and the lack of anything approximating social distancing failing to solicit any kind of Illinois pandemic spike, there’s very good reason to believe our soon-to-resume schools will similarly become a non-issue.

The bottom line for my family? My Aurora middle-school teacher wife and Aurora University son are looking forward to returning to the halls of academia, and I fully support them in that regard.

Meanwhile, my best advice to you would be to let go of the pandemic’s enduring political implications, consider the facts as presented here and in previous pieces, and make the decision that’s best for you and your family.

11 thoughts on “The First Ward Coronavirus Report – Illinois is just fine!

  1. As always, a great note! Especially since just yesterday I tried to explain to someone that just looking at the number of positive cases “going up” isn’t the full story. Of course they are going to “go up” if you test more people. If you test 100 people and get 50 positives and two weeks later you test 200 people and get 100 positives – it is level, not going up. 7th grade math as you say.

    • Does that mean you don’t change your batteries when you adjust your clocks for daylight savings? They have only been saying that since the 70s….

      • Dan,

        Yes it does! And after getting on the top of a 6 foot latter to get one of the dastardly devices last night, we will be following your sage advice going forward!

    • Thank you Vicki! And it’s baffling how folks refuse to consider the number tested in their wacky theories!

  2. Sorry Jeff. I just went back to my college statistics books and rolling average, running average and moving average are one in the same and can be used interchangeably. But you knew that.

  3. I would agree that Illinois is doing well. Aside from those numbers, the positivity rate remains under 4%. I am curious what the governor is crying wolf about. He hasn’t been trying to move us back to previous phases.

    • Phil,

      Governor Pritzker moved IHSA sports, he consistently threatens to re-shut us down, and he claims “we’re going in the wrong direction” when we’re clearly not!

  4. We should be down to zero by now. New Zealand was able to accomplish this. We won’t be out of the woods until everyone starts following safety protocols. Staying “flat” is not acceptable. It means additional people are getting sick and additional people are dying.

  5. Jean,

    No we shouldn’t! This is a pandemic and it ain’t going anywhere so staying flat is as good as it gets until there’s a vaccine that works – something some folks seriously doubt.

    And New Zealand is an island nation of just 5 million people so it’s far easier for them to keep the plague at bay – in the short term. But it will eventually hit them, too!

  6. I don’t know about you, but I am so tired of this pandemic being politicized, not only by JB but now by The teachers unions who have put the Kabash on in school learning for the fall.
    I am anxious to see how the private schools do with in school learning as opposed to e-learning. Will there be an increase in Covid cases in the schools? Will all their teachers die? I highly doubt it, yet teachers are fearing for their lives because of the message being put out there.

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