The First Ward Report – FDR was right. Fear sucks!

He may not have put it quite that way, but I never realized just how wise our singular four-term president was until this particular pandemic reared its eminently ugly head. When you consider what the Baby Boomer and Greatest Generation have endured, the fact that we’ve never seen this level of prevailing panic really does say something.

But before we continue, it’s once more, unto the truth breach, my friends, (pray for me!) as we take a quick look at the most recent Illinois numbers. They are quite good:

Date     Cases   % Increase   N Cases   Tested      Prevalence  Deaths    M%

7/8      149,432         0.6             980         32,742       1 in 35.4        36           4.7

7/9      150,450         0.6          1,018         36,180       1 in 35.5        20           4.7

7/10    151,767         0.8          1,317         32,987       1 in 25           25           4.7

7/11    152,962         0.7          1,195         32,345       1 in 27           24           4.6

7/12    153,916         0.6             952         38,894       1 in 40.8        19           4.6

7/13    154,799         0.5             883         30,012       1 in 33.9          6           4.6

7/14    155,506         0.4             707         28,446       1 in 40.2        25           4.6

7/15    156,693         0.7          1,187         37,831       1 in 31.8          8           4.6

7/16    157,950         0.8          1,257         43,006       1 in 34.2        25           4.6

7/17    159,344         0.8          1,394         43,692       1 in 31.3        21           4.5

7/18    160,610         0.8          1,276         46,099       1 in 36.1        18           4.5

7/19    161,575         0.6             965         32,113       1 in 33.2          5           4.5

Since my erudite deputy statisticians have surpassed me in so many regards, let’s be brief!

  • The number of new daily cases continues to be quite flat.
  • The daily case percent increase, once over 100 percent, hasn’t topped 1 percent since June 2nd.
  • Illinois just saw three consecutive 40,000 plus test result days!
  • The prevalence persists in its 1 in 30 to 1 in 40 range.
  • COVID-19 deaths have fallen off the table, so the mortality rate is similarly decreasing.

Better yet, just 320 ICU beds and 132 ventilators are currently dedicated to COVID-19 patients, both numbers nearing their record lows.

Facts Not Fear 3

But those facts are utterly immaterial to the pandemic panic porn prone press and the rabble who fall in love with every indication that sending children back to school means we’re all gonna die the day after.

So, once again! With no regard for my own safety, let’s debunk the media and rabble’s  patently preposterous latest proclamations as swiftly as we can:

1. There is NO Illinois spike

The papers love to shriek that we topped one-thousand cases four times last week, but then they completely fail to mention it was Illinois’ best testing week, ever! And if you test over 40,000 people, you’ll get 1,200 positive results every time. It’s called basic math.

The prevalence, which hasn’t materially changed since June 6, is a far more telling indicator.

That means the latest rabble ruse about how reopening bars and restaurants led to this supposed Illinois “spike” is even more fictitious than President Trump’s claim about Joe Biden wanting to abolish the police.

If you test more people, you will get more positive results! It’s that simple.

 

2. Children rarely die from COVID-19

The rabble’s latest malediction that we’re condemning our children to a swift death if we send them back to school is beyond baseless.

Apparently, these folks refuse to open their blinds, because if they did, they’d bear witness to all manner of pool parties, barbecues, and social gatherings going on right under their neighborhood noses. But that vast lack of youthful social distancing hasn’t resulted in an undue number of age group deaths.

So, why would going to school with masks and social distancing change that dynamic?

According to the CDC, as of June 17, just 151 Americans under the age of 25 have died of the virus. Meanwhile, 643 children under 18 perished from the 2017-18 flu, which begs the question, where was all this concern when those children were dying?

To further put this in perspective, 2,364 16 to 19-year-olds died in motor vehicle accidents in 2017 (CDC) with another 300,000 being treated in emergency rooms. That adds up to nine deaths a day and slew of lifelong injuries, but we don’t ban cars or take the keys away from teenagers, now do we?

 

3. Teachers will NOT die if we reopen schools

Have any of you been to Target, Jewel, Meijer or Walmart lately? I have, and the very same checkers have been magnificently manning those cash registers since the pandemic onset. And when it comes to repeated exposure to a wide variety of the public and pathogens, they beat teachers by a longshot.

The CDC is abundantly clear that 81 percent of U.S. COVID-19 decedents are 65 or older. Now, add the Washington Post’s report that coronavirus sufferers with high risk factors like diabetes and heart disease are 12 times more likely to succumb to the disease, and we know exactly who we need to protect.

Put more simply, age and co-morbidity are the overriding pandemic mortality factors.

Any teacher who finds themselves in either category (or both) shouldn’t leave the house, much less go back to school. But generally healthy teachers will be just fine as they were back in March when cases were doubling daily and all sorts of asymptomatic folks were roaming undetected.

 

4. Children already brought it home to parents and grandparents

Have I mentioned all the pool parties that go indoors as the festivities end? Some of you seem to think kids have been sitting home along all summer, but they haven’t, so parents have already been “exposed.”

But what really frosts my cupcakes is the grandparent concoction! The U.S. Census Bureau notes that just 2.1 percent of white households include grandparents with black and Hispanic families coming in at a mildly higher 8 percent.

So, that can hardly be considered a valid reason to keep schools closed.

Furthermore, those fine folks made it to the grandparent stage, in great part, because they know how to take care of themselves. Does the rabble really think these senior citizens require their risk-avoidance input to survive this?

I don’t think so!

 

5. All diseases can have enduring effects

Does it bother me that some are facing lingering COVID-19 consequences? You bet it does, particularly because I’ve dealt with asthma my entire life. And that scar tissue result is my lungs will never get above 80 percent in my age-group capacity.

But despite an epic asthma epidemic that puts the plague to shame by affecting more than 24 million Americans, every time I write about how backyard firepits can send an asthmatic child to the hospital, those vast rabble hypocrites curse my name for daring to suggest they douse it.

Aside from anecdotal evidence, which isn’t evidence, the jury is still out on whether COVID-19 is worse in the post-recovery regard. But even if is, keeping children home will, in no way, mitigate this issue because they’re not social distancing as it is!

 

So, in light of these facts and some sage counsel from our 32nd President, let’s all calm down, take a deep breath, and try to remember just how destructive unbridled fear can be, particularly to our children.

There! I’m sure you feel much better now!

6 thoughts on “The First Ward Report – FDR was right. Fear sucks!

  1. Jeff,
    I wish the rest of our local media could be objective about the reality we are facing, this is all great news. With all that has been learned about this virus Geneva’s CUSD decision to have students at home 2-3 days a week is ridiculous. Geneva parents are outraged, as they should be. I am told local private schools are already nearing maximum enrollment capacity since the district made their announcement just three days ago….

    • Mike,

      I appreciate the compliment, and the truth is, for better or worse, most districts are doing that kind of hybrid plan.

      Meanwhile, the private school twist is quite fascinating.

      Jeff

  2. Too bad we did not have all the cable tv and social media in the 50s when I was in grade school. A couple of drills of go to hallway and put your heads down and after the A bomb goes off return to your rooms to complete your lessons would have driving all these snowflakes crazy

  3. If I try to explain this to too many people, all I hear is that I’m reading the wrong news sources. They just dismiss any other opinion without taking even a minute to consider that the news sources that they listen could be wrong.
    I am very concerned about the people that actually believe that this country is so bad and needs to change. Some things need to change but they would tear it all down. What’s happening is treason by our elected officials, all in the name of politics. (And if that isn’t obvious by now, there’s no hope.) Where are the leaders with balls to stand up and say “Hey, this is all wrong!” Who gave these people the power to decide who can work and not. It is destroying the economy and is going to lead to disaster.
    More people die trying to get into this country than die from this virus. Because it’s an opportunity to live in a free country where anyone can work hard and make a better life for themselves. There is no other country like it. And they would bring it down.
    What’s really scary is the Virus Hitler Youth Corp. If you have the nerve to go without a mask, they will turn you in. This whole thing reeks of fascism. And when our freedoms are all gone, which is what is happening here, they”ll find out that they were wrong and it will be too late.
    I fear that we are reaching the point of no return. It’s very, very sad.

    • I work for a man who left Hungary with the clothes on his back at the age of 19 with no plan except to get to North America. Having grown up in a Socialist country, he will tell anyone who will listen that the US is the greatest country. This man built a thriving business after starting with nothing and he feels this is the only place where that could happen. He shudders to hear stories of people reporting their neighbors for not wearing masks or not social distancing because he saw this beforel.

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