The First Ward Report – Coronavirus spikes explained!

But before we go there, let’s take a quick look at Illinois’ latest numbers:

Date   Cases   % Increase     N Cases   N Tested   Prevalence  Deaths   N Deaths

6/26 140,291            0.6             857         30,425       1 in 35.5     6,850        39

6/27 141,077            0.5             786         30,237       1 in 38.4     6,873        23

6/28 141,723            0.4             646         23,789       1 in 36.8     6,888        15

6/29 142,451            0.5             728         26,918       1 in 36.9     6,902        14

6/30 143,185            0.5             734         31,069       1 in 42.3     6,923        21

7/1   144,013            0.5             828         33,090       1 in 39.9     6,951        28

7/2   144,882            0.6             869         30,262       1 in 34.8     6,987        36

7/3   145,750            0.5             868         34,318       1 in 39.5     7,005        18

7/4   146,612            0.5             862         27,235       1 in 31.5     7,015        10

7/5   147,251            0.4             639        33,836       1 in 52.9     7,021          6

7/6   147,865            0.4             614         21,134       1 in 34.4     7,026          5

7/7   148,452            0.3             587         26,994       1 in 45.9     7,063        37

We’ve tested 1,809,834 citizens, IL has slipped to sixth place in the state coronavirus rankings, and the national mortality rate has precipitously declined to 4.3 percent.

Facts Not Fear 3

1. Mortality rate

As we predicted, with coronavirus deaths falling off the table, the Illinois mortality finally inched downward to 4.7 percent. Again, take away the pointless nursing home deaths it would be less than half that. To make matters even better, add the CDC’s declaration that we have 10 times the asymptomatic cases as originally thought, and the COVID-19 mortality rate drops well below that of the annual flu.

2. New daily case percentage increase

Until Illinois experiences a COVID-19 spike, and we likely will when school resumes, this indicator is exactly where it will be until the pandemic burns itself out.

3. New daily cases

See the new daily case percentage increase.

4. Prevalence

We seem to have at temporarily settled on 1 in 35, but given past history, this number will likely retreat further.

5. Daily Deaths

This continues to be the best stat. And it’s not a matter of declining case totals, either, as the daily death toll has disproportionally plummeted.

6. ICU beds and ventilators

It just keeps getting better. As of yesterday, a mere 320 Illinois ICU beds and 153 ventilators were applied to COVID-19 patients.

 

Meanwhile, in an effort to confirm some stipulations and get reasonable answers to lingering questions, I’ve spent a great deal of time talking to real experts about the current coronavirus circumstances. And by “real experts” I mean those fine folks who actually pay attention to facts and statistics and they don’t change their minds every ten seconds.

And no! I will not provide anyone with the names of those sources simply because you demand them! Bleepin’ entitled bleeps! This pandemic has become such a political hot potato that I will expose them to the regular bovine manure generally hurled in my direction.

So, here’s how those conversations went!

1. Illinois has succeeded

Remember! Before the pandemic became a partisan proposition, the goal was to flatten the curve such that our healthcare system wouldn’t be overwhelmed. Since we’ve certainly accomplished that mission, let’s get back to reasonably living our lives.

2. The spikes

We’ve already touched on this! With the plague not going anywhere, is it any surprise that our three most populous states, California, Texas and Florida are experiencing case increases?

No, it isn’t! As one expert said, “It’s a matter of density!” They also added that it isn’t going to the beach that gets you, it’s crowding into the bars and stores afterward that does it.

But because those new cases primarily consist of young folks, the mortality rate in those states continues to free fall. Florida ranks 26th with 18 deaths per 100,000 residents, California is 30th with 16, and Texas is 45th with just 9!

And despite this second wave, their COVID-19 mortality rates are far better than Illinois’ 56 out of every 100,000. It’s called critical thinking people!

Did we really think the pandemic was going anywhere?

3. Herd immunity

Not only did my new experts agree that herd immunity is the only way out of this, but that, the Governor’s worst efforts notwithstanding, our insistently retreating prevalence in the face of consistently increasing testing means Illinois is well on its way to the final pandemic resolution.

They also acknowledged that, with 25 percent of the population refusing to consider a “rushed” vaccine, when it finally does arrive, that vaccine will be as pointless as a Trump political rally

4. How you catch it

Unless you lick a surface or someone licks you outside, the singular COVID-19 transmission medium is repeated exposure in poorly ventilated rooms.

5. An Illinois back to school spike?

Yep! Sure as I’m sittin’ here, it’s gonna happen! And a great part of the reason for that will be our brain-dead Governor banned recess until further notice. So, now those kids will be stuck in perpetually poorly ventilated classrooms and cafeterias even longer!

Then, because of his own stupidity, the Governor will call for a second shutdown.

6. There’s no reason for new shortages

Those same three spiking states have been rolling back their re-opening efforts, but who’s flippin’ fault is that? Did those governors really think the pandemic was packing up and leaving as they closed down those temporary COVID-19 treatment facilities?

Now, they’re issuing all sorts of preposterous self-righteous proclamations about how the rest of us suck when they should be pointing the finger directly into their bathroom mirror.

Then, yesterday, CNN and other media outlets warned of new PPE shortages. Really? The whole point of the shelter-in-place orders was to provide states with catch-up time, but it’s three months after the fact and we’re still not prepared? That’s a bi-partisan political failure of epic proportion.

7. What’s the plan?

I keep asking them, but those progressive nanny-staters just keep walking away. And they’re just as bad as Trump, too, because, contrary to their “conventional wisdom,” no manner of repeated shutdowns will eradicate any pandemic. Just like it’s been for the previous 199,999 years we’ve walked the planet, it has to run its course.

But the difference between this classic liberal and today’s crazy crop of petulant progressives is, I don’t expect you to absolve me from the consequences of my life choices, and my regular readers know just how fascinating those consequences can be!

If, like my wife, you’re a teacher, but you’re afraid of going back to school, retire! If you’re a Major Leaguer and you feel the impending abbreviated season carries too much risk, opt out. And if you’re a health care worker and you don’t want to be repeatedly exposed to the virus, then quit and make a better career choice.

The next pandemic is already brewing in China!

Of course I’ll continue to take all the basic precautions! But I’ve never asked anyone to save me from myself and I certainly don’t expect you to ask me to do the same. The basic definition of this life is “risk!”

10 thoughts on “The First Ward Report – Coronavirus spikes explained!

  1. Thanks for the continued level-headed takes on the pandemic. There are a few things (relatively minor) that I take issue with.

    1. When all things are finally accounted for the mortality rate may well be lower than that of the flue. However, this does not give us the green light to treat it like the seasonal flu. Covid 19 seems to be more infectious and a lower mortality rate among a significantly higher percentage of the population could be disastrous.

    2. While the mortality rate seems to be dropping, deaths are a lagging indicator. There is a real possibility that the death rate climbs again now that cases are on the rise in other states.

    • Yes! I have repeatedly noted that folks over 65 with preexisting conditions are at risk and that we should protect them. But healthy people under 65 are doing far better than they did with the 2017 or 2018 flu.

      I’ve also pointed out that COVID-19 deaths lag by at least two weeks, but theses spikes started at the beginning of June while deaths continue to decrease.

  2. The funny thing is is all I hear lately or read lately is how much worse it is getting. That all the southern states are killing people and California is exploding even though Democrats run it so we are all doomed
    It is so sad that a medical issue is now a political issue. I really want to see the studies and books on this in a few years
    Thanks for doing all this.

    • They really are working on the “spike in cases” but no one focuses on the percentage aspect. It certainly is panic driven.

      • Mari – The percentage of positive cases is currently increasing across the nation. It is incorrect to attribute the current spike to increased testing.

        The low point for positive cases percentage wise was in early to mid June. It’s been increasing for a month. That isn’t due to increased testing.

  3. Love that last paragraph! Tired of everyone asking me to protect them.

  4. If the asymptomatic folk are 10x what we had thought, would that indicate we’re much closer to herd immunity…and the anticipated 2nd way is likely to be much less severe?

    • Ken,

      According to my allergist and another expert, herd immunity is the only answer, but what bothers me is, clearly, those more populous states aren’t nearly there.

      Given the consistently retreating prevalence and the numbers in general, I tend to believe that IL’s second wave won’t be nearly as bad as the first.

      We’ll know shortly after school starts!

      Jeff

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