Though it wasn’t as bad as his last overnight visit, our grandcat Teddy – along with our younger son – is back for an extend stay, and the scurrilous cat unilaterally decided he was nocturnal last night, which apparently requires regular bouts of yowling that can be heard at least two blocks away!
So, because I’m a bit sleep deprived, instead of our regularly scheduled First Ward programming, and because the press is right back at their pandemic panic porn best, let’s do a quick coronavirus update! And we’ll start with the most recent numbers:
Date Cases % Increase N Cases N Tested Prevalence Deaths N Deaths
6/11 130,603 0.5 766 22,325 1 in 29.1 6,185 90
6/12 131,198 0.4 595 24,774 1 in 41.6 6,260 75
6/13 131,871 0.5 673 21,844 1 in 32.4 6,289 29
6/14 132,543 0.5 672 22,004 1 in 32.7 6,308 19
6/15 133,016 0.3 473 18,663 1 in 39.4 6,326 18
6/16 133,689 0.5 673 18,729 1 in 27.8 6,398 72
6/17 134,185 0.3 496 29,987 1 in 60.4 6,485 87
6/18 134,778 0.4 593 25,504 1 in 43 6,537 52
6/19 135,470 0.5 692 27,171 1 in 39.2 6,580 43
6/20 136,104 0.4 634 25,965 1 in 50 6,625 45
6/21 136,742 0.4 638 23,816 1 in 37.3 6,647 22
6/22 137,224 0.3 482 18,219 1 in 37.7 6,671 24
6/23 137,825 0.4 601 20,507 1 in 34.1 6,707 36
6/24 138,540 0.5 715 29,331 1 in 41 6,770 63
6/25 139,434 0.6 894 31,686 1 in 35.4 6,811 41
I’m sure you can see there’s absolutely no evidence of even the mildest Illinois post-protest COVID-19 spike, and the rock bottom daily case numbers indicate just the opposite. Clearly, it’s virtually impossible to catch this thing outdoors, which begs the question, why are we cancelling all manner of morale boosting outdoor summer events?
1. Mortality rate
The Illinois mortality rate inched up from 4.6 to 4.8 percent, but that’s the result of those insistent and inexplicable nursing home deaths combined with our rapidly decreasing daily case numbers. When you consider over half of Illinois coronavirus casualties have occurred in long-term care facilities, the mortality rate has become quite meaningless.
2. New daily case percentage increase
I know I’ve said it before, but bouncing between .3 and .6 percent really is as good as it gets! Until we fully develop herd immunity or an effective vaccine, this pandemic ain’t goin’ anywhere anytime soon. But please note that, at the onset of the plague, it took just 24 hours for cases to double and now the same process takes over 45 days!
3. New daily cases
We haven’t’ had a four-figure new case day since June 5th, and that’s despite Illinois’ unrelenting testing effort. That trend would indicate that, for the next few months, we’ll simply see a 600 daily new case average.
Of course, the astonishing prevalence continues to be the best news. It recently retreated as far as 1 in 60.4, settling in at around 1 in 40. It’s truly hard to believe that, less than two months ago, it took five tests get a positive result, but now it takes a whopping 40!
Again! The only possible answer for that is a rapidly growing herd immunity.
5. Daily Deaths
The third-best news is we haven’t seen a three-figure coronavirus death day since June 4th! And when you combine that stat with the swiftly ICU bed and ventilator numbers, that stat should continue to get better.
6. ICU beds and ventilators
Which brings us to our second-best news as both indicators continue to hit new lows. COVID-19 occupied ICU beds crashed from a March 28 1,290 high to just 389 Wednesday, while ventilator usage similarly dropped from 789 to just 216 on Thursday. Those are massive 70 and 72 percent declines respectively!
General COVID-19 thoughts:
1. Coronavirus Spikes
Other than they’re the three most populous states and there’s bound to be a rebound effect after the numbers hit rock bottom, I have no specific answer for the spikes we’re seeing in California, Texas and Florida. But the news the papers refuse to report is, though COVID-19 hospitalizations are up in those states, just like it is with Illinois, deaths are way down.
2. Cancelling outdoor events and youth sports
The Bundesliga just finished their 2020 regular season and the English Premier League has resumed theirs, but neither soccer association has reported one new coronavirus case as a result. That means there’s no reason not to go back to those amazing River’s Edge concerts and restart youth sports. If you don’t want to participate then don’t!
3. New Illinois school resumption rules
Just when you start to think our Governor’s IQ can’t possibly slip any further, it does just that.:
- I predict a rash of retirements as second grade teachers everywhere run screaming from their schools after just two hours of trying to get their students to stop fiddling with their masks.
- The CDC has been abundantly clear that you can’t catch COVID-19 from a surface, but students won’t be allowed to share toys.
- The same agency finally admitted the critical contagion factor is how long someone’s been subject to the virus INDOORS! So, a time when classes should be held outside, there’s no more recess.
- Temperature checks? Really? By the time you have a temperature you’ve probably already infected half of your classmates. Can you say “pointless?” I knew you
4. The curve is already flatter than a Donald Trump combover
Before the economic havoc-wreaking shutdowns became a partisan hot potato, the entire point of social distancing was to “flatten the curve” such that we didn’t overwhelm our health care system. In the words of a President whose suddenly lookin’ so much better these days, “mission accomplished!”
But with deaths, ICU beds, and ventilator usage all at new lows, Pritzker just declared he’s ready to pull the shelter-in-place trigger again at the slightest pandemic provocation! Why?
I suppose the bright side there is, if he dares attempt to reinstall that bovine manure, the Governor will long for the days of our previous social unrest.
5. We’re still not protecting the vulnerable
Utterly immune to the rising chorus who correctly contend we can open the country while protecting our senior citizens, not only do those bleepin’ Democratic governors refuse to make that eminently obvious move, but they refuse to hold nursing homes accountable for a criminally reckless number of deaths.
And the CDC U.S. COVID-19 age group deaths trend is blithering clear. As of June 17:
Age Group Deaths
1 to 24 151
25 to 34 699
35 to 44 1,780
45 to 54 4,976
55 to 64 12,307
I’m sure even an off-meds ADHD sugar-buzzed sixth grader can see the obvious pattern! Our senior citizens account for more than four times all the other coronavirus casualties combined! To put that in perspective, 3,446 Americans under 50 died of the 2017-18 flu, which reasonably approximates the same age group’s current 4,630 COVID-19 deaths.
I’ll say it again! Particularly when you consider the vast number of asymptomatic cases, for reasonably healthy folks under 65, the coronavirus is far milder than the average annual influenza. But regardless of the irrecoverable economic damage a disastrous second shutdown would inevitably entail, our patently pandering politicians are still willing to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
I voted for Dan Walker, Rod Blagojevich, Pat Quinn, and J. B. Pritzker, but I will never vote for another Illinois Democratic governor again.
Before we part ways till Monday, who’s willing to take Teddy for the weekend so I can get some bleepin’ sleep?