The First Ward coronavirus report – Still good!

Unless there’s something new or more fascinating to report going forward, this will be the last coronavirus report for a while. That said, it will be rather fascinating to see if the riots and protests actually do lead to a second wave spike. My best guess is they won’t because it’s just too difficult to contract the disease outdoors.

In the words of those great philosophers Asia, “Only time will tell.”

Considering how the sun’s ultraviolet rays destroy it, the wind disperses it, and it’s virtually impossible to catch the coronavirus it from any surface, I cannot understand why youth sports remain on hiatus and all manner of summer events like the Kane County Fair and Bristol Renaissance Faire have been canceled.

Facts Not Fear 3

Since 2020 is insisting on asking us to “hold my beer” on a regular basis, this is EXACTLY the time we need those magnificent diversions, but baseless fear continues to reign supreme. Every time I’m convinced my faith in our “leaders” and my fellowman can’t descend further into the abyss, it does just that.

Meanwhile, the German Bundesliga Soccer League has resumed their season for almost a month now and there hasn’t been a single report of a player contracting COVID-19 as a result. If you’re too terrified to participate in a summer event, then there’s a very simple answer, don’t!

Meanwhile, let’s get back to the numbers because they’re all good!

Date   Cases   % Increase  N Cases    N Tested  Prevalence  Deaths 

5/1     56,055            5.6          3,137         14,821       1 in 4.7       2,457

5/2     58,505            4.3          2,450         15,208       1 in 6.2       2,559

5/3     61,499            4.8          2,994         19,417       1 in 6.5       2,618

5/4     63,840            3.8          2,341         13,834       1 in 6          2,662

5/5     65,962            3.3          2,122         13,139       1 in 6.2       2,838

5/6     68,232            3.4          2,270         14,974       1 in 6.6       2,974

5/7     70,873            3.8          2,641        17,783       1 in 6.7       3,111

5/8     73,760            4.0          2,887         20,671       1 in 7.1       3,241

5/9     76,085            3.1          2,325         16,617       1 in 7.1       3,349

5/10   77,741            2.1          1,656         13,653       1 in 8.2       3,406

5/11   79,007            1.6          1,266         12,441       1 in 9.8       3,459

5/12   83,021            5.0          4,014         29,266       1 in 7.3       3,601

5/13   84,698            2.0          1,677         17,688       1 in 10.5     3,792

5/14   87,937            3.8          3,239         22,678       1 in 7          3,928

5/15   90,368            2.6          2,431         26,565       1 in 10.9     4,058

5/16   92,457            2.3          2,089         23,047       1 in 11        4,129

5/17   94,191            1.8          1,734         20,295       1 in 11.7     4,177

5/18   96,484            2.4          2,293         21,297       1 in 9.2       4,234

5/19   98,030            1.6          1,546         18,443       1 in 12        4,379

5/20 100,418            2.4          2,388         21,029       1 in 8.8       4,525

5/21 102,686            2.2          2,268         29,036       1 in 13        4,607

5/22 105,444            2.6          2,758         25,113       1 in 9.1       4,715

5/23 107,796            2.2          2,352         25,114       1 in 10.6     4,790

5/24 110,304            2.3          2,508         25,675       1 in 10.2     4,856

5/25 112,017            1.5          1,713        21,643       1 in 12.6     4,884

5/26 113,195           1.0          1,178         17,230       1 in 14.6     4,923


5/27 114,306            0.9          1,111         17,179       1 in 15.4     5,083     

5/28 115,833            1.3          1,527         25,993       1 in 17        5,186     

5/29 117,455            1.4          1,622         21,796       1 in 13.4     5,270     

5/30 118,917            1.2          1,462         25,343       1 in 17.3     5,330     

5/31 120,260            1.1          1,343         21,154       1 in 15.7     5,390      

6/1   121,234            0.8             974         20,014       1 in 20.5     5,412       

6/2   122,848            1.3          1,614         16,432       1 in 10.1     5,525     

For reasons we’ve previously covered, I wouldn’t put too much stock in any Illinois number, but we’ve purportedly tested 934,704 residents. We’re still in third place nationally and the mortality rate, currently at 4.4 percent, will likely remain there for the duration.

And all the good news is the same good news which makes it ever better news! We’re always looking for trends, aren’t we?

To wit, we don’t need a moving average to tell us that the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is consistently dropping despite a rather consistent testing effort. Better yet, the best the new daily case percentage increase could do was a scant 1.4 percent, which means that the collapse of social distancing is not leading to any Illinois coronavirus spiking catastrophe.

Though the death toll does continue to bounce around a bit, that too, is clearly trending downward and the data point I particularly like this round is June first’s slim 22 deaths.

Date    Deaths

5/27       160

5/28       103

5/29         84

5/30         60

5/31         60

6/1           22

6/2         113

We’d have to go back to the earliest Illinois pandemic days to find a lower casualty total.

COVID-19 ICU bed usage has officially plummeted from a 1,290 April, 29 high to just 874 yesterday. Ventilator use has similarly declined to a new record low 547 on Monday.

But, I’m sure my crack statistical deputies have duly noted that, just when we thought the prevalence couldn’t retreat any further, it does! And that includes an astonishing 1 in 20.5, also on June first, when it took 20,000 tests to solicit just 974 positive results.

Again, the only possible explanation for this phenomenon is a rapidly evolving herd immunity. And herd immunity is the only thing that will finally put the oaken stake in COVID-19’s bleak heart.

So, while I’d be happy to keep issuing these reports, and I will continue tracking the data, it’s all good. The appropriate application of statistical arithmetic has never failed to tell us exactly what the disease will do next, and I applaud all of the amazing folks who’ve joined me in this fascinating critical thinking journey!

But before we move on from the coronavirus for now, two more things!

Because it’s the purview of too many pandering politicians, I’m loathe to co-opt a current event just to point a finger and say “I told you so!” So, before I offered this theory, I spoke with s slew of erudite friends, elected officials, and law enforcement officers, and only after they signed on did I decide to proceed.

We all agreed that looters are nothing more than opportunists who, like cockroaches, slither out of the dark recesses whenever social unrest shields them from the light of day. But all the other protests? Hasn’t one of our bedrock considerations been that that nothing ever happens in a vacuum?

My theory is those heavy handed and vastly overreaching government shutdowns are a “cure” that’s far worse than the pandemic. And one of the consequences of so callously destroying peoples’ – and particularly minorities’– lives and livelihoods is that it only takes a spark to set off the kind of anger we’re witnessing right now.

And the beyond tragic death of George Floyd was that spark.

While corporations are reaping billions of COVID-19 relief funds, the people who really needed that money got a paltry 1,200 bucks. And this time, the revolution is being televised.

Lastly, considering what’s happening in so many prisons and long-term care facilities, Sheriff Ron Hain and his capable staff have done a magnificent job of keeping the coronavirus out of the Kane County jail. Ron and I may fight like brothers because he can be a real pain in the ass (he’d say the same thing about me), but the Sheriff’s office truly deserves credit for pulling that kind of thing off!

Now, insisting you stay safe works on any number of levels. My application to serve on the International Space Station goes in tomorrow!


4 thoughts on “The First Ward coronavirus report – Still good!

  1. Thank you, Jeff, for all your reporting and your fact based explanations of the statistics. In a way I think it’s good news to hear you will only be reporting if something new or more fascinating happens, because that means “it’s getting better all the time” (name that song!). And I have to agree with your “spark” observation. Again, thanks.

  2. I work at a small to medium sized museum, and we found out today that we are one-size-fits-all being grouped with museums like the Chicago Science and Industry and are in Phase Four for reopening.
    We have spent months putting plans together for safely reopening and yet we have to stay closed until God knows when. We were hoping to be in phase three. Being in DuPage County, our cases are low, but thanks to being grouped with Cook County and Chicago, God only knows when we will be able to let patrons back in our door.
    We are all holding our breath to see how long we can hold onto our jobs.
    I thank you for your concise reports on Covid. I only wish JB would wake up to what’s really happening with this virus. The cure really is worse than the pandemic! You can’t keep people locked up for months and not let us have any outlet. Certainly a recipe for disaster!

  3. If I was your museum, I’d simply open up. Nobody’s following any guidelines any more.

    And thank you for the compliment!

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