The First Ward Cornavirus Report – May 1, 2020

Our grand-cat stayed with us yesterday and, apparently missing my son, he cried all night, so I got a whole two hours of sleep. The best parts of the evening were when Teddy decided to use my chest as a scratching post, and then he tried to sleep on the side of my face.

On the plus side, either I’m no longer allergic to cats or perhaps I’m not allergic to this one. There was a time when the furry little critters would’ve set my asthma off such that it would require an ER visit. Though I do enjoy seeing Teddy, I’m grateful he’s going home today.

So, before I fall asleep at the keyboard, here’s the table!

Date   Cases   % Increase  N Cases    N Tested  Prevalence  Deaths 

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

4/17   27,575            7.1          1,842           7,574       1 in 4.1       1,134

4/18   29,160            5.7          1,585           7,241       1 in 4.5       1,259

4/19   30,357            4.1          1,197           5,914       1 in 5          1,290

4/20   31,508            3.8          1,151           5,040       1 in 4.4       1,349

4/21   33,059            4.7          1,551           6,639       1 in 4.3       1,468

4/22   35,108            6.1          2,049           9,350       1 in 4.6       1,565

4/23   36,934            5.2          1,826           8,969       1 in 4.9       1,688

4/24   39,658            7.3          2,724         16,315       1 in 6          1,795

4/25   41,777            5.3          2,119         11,985       1 in 5.6       1,874

4/26   43,903            5.0          2,126         12,975       1 in 6.1       1,933

4/27   45,833            4.4          1,930         13,096       1 in 6.75     1,983

4/28   48,102            4.9          2,269         14,561       1 in 6.4       2,125

4/29   50,355            4.6          2,253         14,478       1 in 6.4       2,215

4/30   52,918            4.8          2,563         13,200       1 in 5.2       2,355

Illinois has tested 269,867 of its citizens, the prevalence came down a bit to 1 in 5.2, and we’re still in fourth place in the national rankings.

Facts Not Fear 4

The mortality rate stayed put at 4.4 percent, our fifteenth straight day of it bouncing between 4.1 and 4.5 percent. This indicator continues to be the best news for all the reasons we’ve already discussed.

One ICU bed opened up, but eight more ventilators are being used.

Date   ICU Beds     %+     Ventilators      %+

4/23       1,225                         709

4/24       1,244        1.5            763               7.6

4/25       1,267        1.8            772               1.1

4/26       1,249       -1.4            763              -1.1

4/27       1,245       -0.3            778               1.9

4/28       1,290        0.3            777              -0.1

4/30       1,289       -0.8            785               1.0

Again, if things were getting worse instead of better, the number of COVID-19 ICU beds would be noticeably increasing.

Date         5-day M Average

4/26                 2,169

4/27                 2,145

4/28                 2,234

4/29                 2,140

4/30                 2,229

The five-day moving average popped a little bit, but the trend is still somewhat down. Today’s number will tell us where this one’s likely going to go.

The not-so-great news is our-fourth best testing day led to our second-best new case total, which is not the kind of disconnect we really want to see! But given the recent prevalence trend, I’d be willing to bet that Thursday’s number will turn out to be a statistical blip.

The daily new case increase percentage came in at a respectable 4.8 percent which again, means the disease is not accelerating. In fact, we’ve been in a tight 4 to 5 percent range for the last five days. With testing seeming to stabilize at around 12,132 per day, I would expect the daily new case percentage increase to start dropping again.

But while the news isn’t all good, none of it’s truly bad, either. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned from our ongoing study, it’s this! To be an effective measure, statistics must always be viewed in context. Looking at just one day is a lot like the proverbial blind man who grabbed an elephant by the tail and was convinced the creature was a snake.

The only editorializing I’ll do today is to remind you of a point we covered very early on. And that point was that the best way to get someone to do something is to beat them over the head with the opposite possibility. Not only that, but now that these state shutdowns have taken on an unfortunate partisan bent, any real message gets lost in all the shrieking.

So, as the temperatures start to hit the mid-60s with semi-regularity, what I’m starting to see in my west side Geneva subdivision certainly can’t be described as social distancing. Put more simply, the decision to reopen the state soon won’t be the Governor’s!

Stay safe!

One thought on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – May 1, 2020

  1. Thanks Jeff. I appreciate the update!

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