The First Ward Cornavirus Report – April 30, 2020

Again, if I was encouraged to add a more descriptive masthead here, I’d have to quote those great philosophers Steve Winwood, Jim Capaldi, Dave Mason, and Chris Wood by declaring “I’m feelin’ alright” about yesterday’s numbers.

So, let’s get right to ‘em!

Date   Cases   % Increase  N Cases    N Tested  Prevalence  Deaths 

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

4/17   27,575            7.1          1,842           7,574       1 in 4.1       1,134

4/18   29,160            5.7          1,585           7,241       1 in 4.5       1,259

4/19   30,357            4.1          1,197           5,914       1 in 5          1,290

4/20   31,508            3.8          1,151           5,040       1 in 4.4       1,349

4/21   33,059            4.7          1,551           6,639       1 in 4.3       1,468

4/22   35,108            6.1          2,049           9,350       1 in 4.6       1,565

4/23   36,934            5.2          1,826           8,969       1 in 4.9       1,688

4/24   39,658            7.3          2,724         16,315       1 in 6          1,795

4/25   41,777            5.3          2,119         11,985       1 in 5.6       1,874

4/26   43,903            5.0          2,126         12,975       1 in 6.1       1,933

4/27   45,833            4.4          1,930         13,096       1 in 6.75     1,983

4/28   48,102            4.9          2,269         14,561       1 in 6.4       2,125

4/29   50,355            4.6          2,253         14,478       1 in 6.4       2,215

A whopping 256,667 Illinoisans have been tested and we’re still in fourth place nationally. Of course, our third-best testing day led to our third-highest daily coronavirus count, but the prevalence tells us it’s taking more tests to find fewer positive results.

Facts Not Fear 3

The daily new case increase percentage backed off to 4.6 percent, with 5 percent becoming our new resistance level, and the five-day moving case average is starting to tell us something:

Date         5-day M Average

4/26                 2,169

4/27                 2,145

4/28                 2,234

4/29                 2,140

With the 28th being an outlier, I’m sure you can see the early stages of a trend.

Monday’s ICU bed gains were reversed, but we did free up one ventilator. Small victories, right? Please remember! These kinds of data points rarely travel in straight lines. They’re not as bad as trying to track a squirrel crossing Randall Road at rush hour, but there will always be “noise.”

That’s why the Governor’s 14 straight day down new case days mandate is such bovine manure. There will always be outlier days, and as testing becomes more available, the number of new cases will continue to rise. Pritzker should be looking at a new case moving average with a heavy dose of prevalence, instead.

Here’s the hospital data:

Date   ICU Beds     %+     Ventilators      %+

4/23       1,225                         709

4/24       1,244        1.5            763               7.6

4/25       1,267        1.8            772               1.1

4/26       1,249       -1.4            763              -1.1

4/27       1,245       -0.3            778               1.9

4/28       1,290        0.3            777              -0.1

Of course, the best news, once again, is our eminently flat mortality rate dropped a notch to 4.3 percent. So, I’m just gonna keep on saying it! This is clear and convincing evidence that we’re past that COVID-19 peak and headed towards the downside. Nothing else is possible!

To follow up on yesterday’s column, with Coroner Rob Russell refusing to do his job, I turned to the Kane County Health Department. And a high-level staffer told me that virtually all of his 51 individually listed Kane County coronavirus victims had a major “co-morbidity” factor.

Put more simply, it was the combination of the virus and a preexisting condition that killed them. Without that prior medical issue, they’d still be alive. Oh! And for clarification purposes, that Coroner’s list contained who died in Kane County hospitals whether they were county residents or not.

Next!

I want to express sincere gratitude to my friend Paul Stukel for turning off the comments on the majority of my Facebook coronavirus report posts. It’s not that I don’t occasionally enjoy the conversations, and perhaps it’s the pandemic, but some of y’all really are batshit crazy.

The fascinating thing is, with much of the “noise” now filtered out, the most common complaint is “You’re not a medical expert.” Though it’s not nearly my point, the irony of these critics ignoring how the WHO, medical professionals and virtually every epidemiologist got it wrong every step of the way, is not nearly lost on me.

And that irony is particularly fascinating when our seventh-grade math has accurately predicted the Illinois pandemic every step of the way.

You see, one of the most magnificent things about the universe is that arithmetic works the same for everyone at every point in spacetime. Better yet, you don’t need to be an “expert” in any particular field – baseball, pandemics, animal populations, or political campaigning – to correctly apply a statistical analysis. All that’s required is a basic understanding of how apply the eminently simple formulas.

Think about it! Do we really need to endure years of playing baseball at every level to calculate a batting average or ERA? No we don’t! This isn’t magic! Statistics works! And unlike so many of my frothing at the mouth critics, our only agenda here is the truth.

Stay safe!

5 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – April 30, 2020

  1. Thanks for the good news. I was never too good at stats, so wondering how you calculate the mortality rate?

    • You are welcome. The Illinois mortality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of total coronavirus cases, and then multiplying it by 100.

      So! 2215 deaths divided by 50,355 times 100 equals 4.3 percent.

      • So if you add in all the people who are asymptotic or had Covid and didn’t know it, then the mortality rate is even lower. Although I heard JB say that there are probably 700 more deaths that were “suspicious “ before they started testing. Wonder how low the mortality rate really is?

  2. I love “arithmetic works the same for everyone at every point in spacetime”! Math is black and white – 2 + 2 will always equal 4. Numbers with no BS! That’s what I like about your columns.

  3. How does the mortality rate indicate where a population is on their curve? I would think the number of deaths as a percent of diagnosed cases would not change or trend based on whether we have hit our peak. Can you explain why you say it does?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s