Since I’m running out of creative column titles, let’s just apply the day’s date going forward! But if I was to label what will inevitably turn out to be another stellar journalistic achievement, it would be, ‘We’re getting better!’
On to the table!
Date Cases % Increase N Cases N Tested Prevalence Deaths
4/14 23,247 5.5 1,222 4,848 1 in 4 868
4/15 24,593 5.7 1,346 6,313 1 in 4.7 948
4/16 25,733 4.8 1,180 5,660 1 in 4.8 1,072
4/17 27,575 7.1 1,842 7,574 1 in 4.1 1,134
4/18 29,160 5.7 1,585 7,241 1 in 4.5 1,259
4/19 30,357 4.1 1,197 5,914 1 in 5 1,290
4/20 31,508 3.8 1,151 5,040 1 in 4.4 1,349
4/21 33,059 4.7 1,551 6,639 1 in 4.3 1,468
4/22 35,108 6.1 2,049 9,350 1 in 4.6 1,565
4/23 36,934 5.2 1,826 8,969 1 in 4.9 1,688
4/24 39,658 7.3 2,724 16,315 1 in 6 1,795
4/25 41,777 5.3 2,119 11,985 1 in 5.6 1,874
4/26 43,903 5.0 2,126 12,975 1 in 6.1 1,933
4/27 45,833 4.4 1,930 13,096 1 in 6.75 1,983
4/28 48,102 4.9 2,269 14,561 1 in 6.4 2,125
After our second-best results day, 242,189 Illinoisans have now been swabbed, and despite that increased testing, it looks like we’ll be in fourth place nationally for the foreseeable future.
So, what’s the best news class? That’s right! The prevalence! You’ve clearly been paying attention!
It continues to back off faster than President Trump from the prospect of a Clorox IV. (I’m sorry! I just couldn’t’ resist!). After 18 straight days of sitting squarely between 1 in 4 to in 5, yesterday’s 1 in 6.4 prevalence looks pretty damn good.
Our second-best testing day did lead to our second-best new case total, but it took 14,561 test results to get there. Again, with the more relaxed screening criteria, I’d really like to know the severity of these recent cases, but that data isn’t available because it doesn’t fit the Governor’s all-hope-is-lost narrative. So we have to rely on the number of COVID-19 occupied hospital bed and ventilators, instead:
Date ICU Beds %+ Ventilators %+
4/23 1,225 709
4/24 1,244 1.5 763 7.6
4/25 1,267 1.8 772 1.1
4/26 1,249 -1.4 763 -1.1
4/27 1,245 -0.3 778 1.9
For the second consecutive day, that ICU bed usage actually dropped! A 0.3 decline may not be much to write home about, but any day that ICU beds open up is a good day.
The next best news is, even though the Illinois mortality rate ticked up a notch to 4.4 percent, that’s still a tenth-of-a-percent below our high and it marks its 13th straight flat day. If we were heading into the coronavirus peak, that number, by its very lagging definition, would be steadily climbing.
As you might imagine, the daily new case percentage increase popped up a bit to 4.9 percent, but it’s still far closer to a new bottom than it is to a new top. The fact that today’s Chicago Tribune reported virtually all of Illinois’ temporary medical facilities are being closed due to lack of use, further supports the disease’s deceleration.
If there’s one thing I hope I’ve taught you by now, it would be that it always pays to take all of the possible variable into account. To that end, with the test result numbers regaining some consistency, our five-day moving average is starting to regain some meaning:
Date 5-day M Average
Though we will need a few more data points before it can really tell us anything.
And we have some new Kane County numbers, too!
It may be more than a little morbid, but Kane County Coroner Rob Russell, a man who never tires of seeing his name in the newspaper, is releasing a weekly countdown of the age, gender and location of each KC casualty.
Like the great John Donne, I too mourn for anyone’s passing because every such loss diminishes me, but because those separate data points are meaningless, the Coroner is clearly creating this compendium simply to sow fear and raise his public profile.
But when those 51 deaths are compiled correctly, those numbers actually have a lot to say:
Age Deaths %
100 1 0.2
90-99 14 27.5
80-89 13 25.5
70-79 10 19.6
69-65 7 13.7
60-64 3 5.9
59-50 4 7.8
49-40 1 0.2
39-0 0 0.0
I’m sure you can already see that 82 percent of these deaths consist of people 65 or older.
The next logical step would be to determine how many of them had some sort of serious underlying or preexisting condition, and since the coroner ultimately determines the cause of death, he’s certainly the one to ask.
But after repeated attempts to reach him, not only did he ghost me, but he blocked my phone number, too! And he did that because, despite talking to every other journalist on the planet, my fact-based COVID-19 reality doesn’t match his self-imposed heroic narrative. When we know exactly who’s at risk, the Coroner’s Office won’t be getting any more press, will they!
If you doubt me, please take a look at Russell’s new “Medieval” office logo. Can you say “over-the-top?” I knew you could! So, I guess it’s FOIA time! The amount of political pandering permeating this pandemic is patently beyond the pale.
But if we consider New York City’s stats, it would be more than safe to say that 90 percent of those Kane County victims suffered from another medical condition that greatly contributed to their demise.
Beyond any and all reasonable doubt, we now know that, for 70-plus year olds with a compromised immune system, this disease is far more lethal than the flu. We know it’s somewhat worse than the flu for similar folks between 55 and 64. But when you consider that scientifically proven asymptomatic horde, the mortality rate for people under 55 is 0.002 percent, which is nothing compared to the average annual flu’s 0.1 percent.
So, how many times do I have to ask this question? Why are we forcing everyone to stay home when we know exactly who we need to protect?
There’s only three ways this pandemic ends. The first is an asteroid strike, and I gotta say, the rabble’s irrational fear of critical thinking is makin’ me really start to like this possibility. The second would be to develop a vaccine, but that’s gonna take 18 months to two years, and if this insipid shutdown lasts that long, there will be nothing to come back to.
But that’s not the only problem with that one! If you can contract the coronavirus more than once, something the WHO’s been currently considering, then a vaccine, by it’s very definition, is a patently pointless proposition.
The third, and almost as effective as the asteroid method, is to develop a herd immunity. Even though Sweden has taken a boatload of bovine manure for taking that route, their leaders are saying they’re just one or two weeks away from achieving that countrywide condition.
And then the disease starts fading into nothing more than a really bad memory.
Meanwhile, most of us are locked down at home while our leaders dither over issues that have long since been settled. I’m not sure who said, “You can pay now of your can pay later,” but they certainly got the coronavirus pandemic right!
Please let me remind you that, before you show up with all the pitchforks and torches, I’m a social liberal as well as one of those at-risk folks whose livelihood has been unaffected by shelter-in-place. It’s simply a matter of recognizing the truth and putting it out there!