The First Ward Cornavirus Report – Nothing unexpected!

In fact, yesterday was almost, but not quite, a carbon copy of Friday. To absolutely no one’s surprise, our second-best testing day led to our penultimate new coronavirus case day, but the rest of our stats are telling us we continue to move to the downside of that oft-discussed “curve.”

Facts Not Fear 3

So, here’s your favorite table:

Date   Cases   % Increase  N Cases     N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

4/12   20,852            8.7          1,672           7,956       1 in 4.75        720

4/13   22,025            5.6          1,173           5,033       1 in 4.3          794

4/14   23,247            5.5          1,222           4,848       1 in 4             868

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

4/17   27,575            7.1          1,842           7,574       1 in 4.1       1,134

4/18   29,160            5.7          1,585           7,241       1 in 4.5       1,259

4/19   30,357            4.1          1,197           5,914       1 in 5          1,290

4/20   31,508            3.8          1,151           5,040       1 in 4.4       1,349

4/21   33,059            4.7          1,551           6,639       1 in 4.3       1,468

4/22   35,108            6.1          2,049           9,350       1 in 4.6       1,565

4/23   36,934            5.2          1,826           8,969       1 in 4.9       1,688

4/24   39,658            7.3          2,724         16,315       1 in 6          1,795

4/25   41,777            5.3          2,119         11,985       1 in 5.6       1,874

201,617 Illinoisans have been tested. In light of the recent massive testing increase, we eked out Pennsylvania for fifth place in the state rankings, the prevalence seems to be seeking a new range, and the mortality rate DROPPED to 4.4 percent.

The Governor has repeatedly said he wants to see at least 10,000 tests a day, and it looks like that will be the case going forward. A First Ward roving reporter noted the Aurora Premium Outlet Mall, the newest National Guard testing site, was absolutely packed yesterday, so our daily testing number will likely continue to climb.

Again, the best measure of the pandemic was the Illinois mortality rate slipping a notch to 4.4 percent. This is especially good news when you consider it’s a two-week lagging indicator. Thankfully, people don’t immediately die of the disease.

The next best news is the prevalence continues to tell us our increased testing is finding fewer cases. Saturday’s new case number may be the second highest, but it took two times the recently eclipsed testing average to find all of ‘em.

The daily new case percentage increase settled down to a respectable 5.3 percent which, again, means more sick people aren’t leading to more sick people.

As we discussed yesterday, particularly in light of relaxed COVID-19 screening standards, I wish the State would track the severity of these new cases, but they don’t. That means we’ll have to rely on the Illinois Department of Public Health for the ICU and ventilator numbers:

Date   ICU Beds   %+     Ventilators        %+

4/24       1,225                         709

4/25       1,244        1.5            763               7.6

We need a few more data points before we get too excited about this one, but a scant 1.5 increase in coronavirus occupied ICU beds is certainly another good sign.

Put more simply, every last one of our indicators is signaling that the pandemic is loosening its grip. Illinois’ next logical step would be, per New York, to test random citizens to determine how prevalent and generally asymptomatic the disease really is.

Of course, using the words “Illinois” and “logical” in the same sentence is always a recipe for a vast disappointment, but hope does spring eternal!

Please also let me to remind you that there is no magic bullet here. A new study found that, not only is the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine ineffective against COVID-19, but it can kill you even faster. You never want to mess with ultraviolet light and most of us call injecting a body with disinfectants “embalming,” so you might want to avoid that too!

I don’t recommend people or businesses very often, but if you want to talk to someone who truly understands how to boost your immune system, I would highly recommend Larry Frieders, owner of The Compounder in Aurora.

We’re not talking New Agey bizarre remedies here, either! Larry and his staff believe in a balance of pharmaceuticals and scientifically proven supplements that have helped keep me healthy for the last five years. They are truly are a one-of-a-kind enterprise.

To be clear, I do not get paid for my journalistic efforts, the blog takes in no money whatsoever, it’s fun to watch all the hits but they’re meaningless, and the most I’ve ever received for one of my rare recommendations is a bottle of red wine. (Thank you Jamie Vargo!)

Alright! Tomorrow we will discuss how the shutdown toll will likely eclipse that of the coronavirus. Remember! Our favorite statistical motto is “nothing happens in a vacuum” and the cure will eventually prove to be far worse than the disease.

Meanwhile, please stay safe!

2 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – Nothing unexpected!

  1. Lieutenant Obvious reporting to Captain Obvious — in a rather KEEN fashion …
    The I-ROD -Infection Rate Of the Day … is not “slipping into darkness” (WAR)
    but it is … falling
    4/17 .2432 >
    4/18 .2189 >
    4/19 .2024 > .2275 .. average
    4/20 .2284 >
    4/21 .2447 >
    and we are now … Tom Petty … “Free Falling”

    4/22 .2191 *** day #1
    4/23 .2036 > .1916 average
    4/24 .1670 > this is a 15.78% FALL OFF
    4/25 .1768

  2. God I cannot wait for elections and political news both real and rumors
    And Jeff I really don’t know how you do it with all the feed back you must get. I get push back when I say just look at numbers. No I am wrong paper says another 2090 or whatever yes they tested more people. No we are all going to die. Which is a true statement I guess

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