The First Ward Cornavirus Report – I’m starting to sound like a broken record!

The First Ward Cornavirus Report – I’m starting to sound like a broken record!

But the news continues to be as good as the numbers have predicted, so who am I to get in their way. Put more simply, it’s table time!

Date   Cases   % Increase N Cases  N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

4/9     16,422            9             1,344           5,791       1 in 4.3          528

4/10   17,887            8.7          1,445           6,670       1 in 4.6          596

4/11   19,180            7.2          1,293           5,252       1 in 4.1          677

4/12   20,852            8.7          1,672           7,956       1 in 4.75        720

4/13   22,025            5.6          1,173           5,033       1 in 4.3          794

4/14   23,247            5.5          1,222           4,848       1 in 4             868

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

4/17   27,575            7.1          1,842           7,574       1 in 4.1       1,134

4/18   29,160            5.7          1,585           7,241       1 in 4.5       1,259

4/19   30,357            4.1          1,197           5,914       1 in 5          1,290

4/20   31,508            3.8          1,151           5,040       1 in 4.4       1,349

4/21   33,059            4.7          1,551           6,639       1 in 4.3       1,468

The Land of Lincoln testing total is now 154,997, our prevalence is prevalencing, we did pass Michigan to move up to six place state-wise, and the mortality rate ticked up just a notch to 4.4 percent. But the good news there is, that lagging indicator has flattened over the last six days and it certainly seems to be flirting with a downward turn. And once the mortality rate turns down, it’s the beginning of the end of this thing.

Facts Not Fear

Our daily new case percentage increase did pop up a bit to 4.7 percent, but that’s on the back of our fourth best testing day. The five-day moving average also inched up a bit, but unless something strange happens tomorrow, we’re about to drop that April 17 case record day which will bring the average right back down into the thirteen hundreds:

Date         5-day M Average

4/15                 1,342

4/16                 1,319

4/17                 1,353

4/18                 1,435

4/19                 1,430

4/20                 1,391

4/21                 1,466

Once again, we’re spending more time in this peak area than we expected, but as previously discussed, it could be so much worse at this point.

Considering what the numbers are clearly saying, I couldn’t quite figure out why the Governor and his “experts” suddenly think we’re looking at a mid-May COVID-19 peak until I read this morning’s Chicago Tribune.

Clearly not a very bright man, Pritzer said this about the postponed peak, “You have to actually get to the peak and start down the other side before you know you hit a peak.” That non-statement statement sounds like something right out ‘Dr. Strangelove.’

Not one to avoid an opportunity to obfuscate, Prizker added that, per federal government guidelines, he wants daily cases to decline for 14 straight days before reopening the state. But considering the still inexplicable lack of Illinois testing, the lack of any testing standard, and the four different strains of the disease, that ain’t gonna happen anytime soon.

There’s no excuse for Illinois’ continued erratic testing methodology, either. J. B. certainly didn’t wait on Washington to get medical supplies from China!

And what happens when more widespread testing finally uncovers a wholly asymptomatic host of COVID-19 carriers? Worse yet, when the disease finally hits that curve downside, unshackling the teeming masses would likely have the same effect as if we did it right now. The disease will be no less contagious in June.

The math tells us the peak came to pass on April 17 and 18 and we’ll be well past it by mid May. Given that and all the current coronavirus evidence, I’ll say it again! We need to shift our paradigm to protect our most vulnerable citizens and get back to work.

We cannot let the cure become worse than the disease. We’ll talk about that a lot more tomorrow.

Meanwhile, stay tuned for my report on the Elgin Mental Health Center. Apparently, the State doesn’t believe their own COVID-19 rules apply to them!

 

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