The First Ward Cornavirus Report – A better day!

Trust me! Particularly in light of a record 125 Illinois coronavirus deaths, I know it’s kinda odd to cast yesterday as a “better day.” But please remember that our consistent analytical goal is to determine where the disease is going, and deaths and mortality rates only tell us where it’s been.

Facts Not Fear 2

To absolutely no one’s surprise, our third-best testing day (7,241) led directly to our third highest coronavirus case day (1,585). But when you consider the scant 4 percent decline in testing over Friday turned up 14 percent fewer new cases, it looks like Friday’s spike may well have been a statistical blip.

We need a couple more days of data before making that final determination, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the feared Easter spike will not come to pass.

Meanwhile, let’s go to the table:

Date   Cases   % Increase   N Cases    N Tested   Prevalence    Deaths 

4/5     11,256            8.6             899           5,402       1 in 6             274

4/6     12,262            9             1,006           3,959       1 in 4             307

4/7     13,549            10.5        1,287           5,790       1 in 4.5          380

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

4/9     16,422            9             1,344           5,791       1 in 4.3          528

4/10   17,887            8.7          1,445           6,670       1 in 4.6          596

4/11   19,180            7.2          1,293           5,252       1 in 4.1          677

4/12   20,852            8.7          1,672           7,956       1 in 4.75        720

4/13   22,025            5.6          1,173           5,033       1 in 4.3          794

4/14   23,247            5.5          1,222           4,848       1 in 4             868

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

4/16   25,733            4.8          1,180           5,660       1 in 4.8       1,072

4/17   27,575            7.1          1,842           7,574       1 in 4.1       1,134

4/18   29,160            5.7          1,585           7,241       1 in 4.5       1,259

Illinois has tested 137,404 souls, the prevalence is going to seriously change for the duration, we’re still in seventh place in the state rankings, and our mortality rate ticked up to a record 4.3 percent, which is troublesome, but it’s still significantly better than the national 5.2 percent rate.

The daily new case percentage increase – the measure of how fast the coronavirus is spreading – settled back down to eminently reasonable 5.7 percent. That means more sick people aren’t necessarily leading to more sick people.

Yes! Illinois is still seeing new cases. But when you consider that, left unchecked, one coronavirus carrier will infect 2.3 others, the daily case number remaining flat since April 7 is a very good sign!

To wit, if we eliminate the noise by calculating the most recent twelve-day new case average, it means only Friday has serious surpassed that 1,410 benchmark.

Per yesterday’s discussion, it appears that we’ll be sitting at this peak for a little longer than anyone thought, but the disease is NOT accelerating, it’s actually decelerating. And as long as this trend continues, we’ll continue to see those compound interest dividends pay off down the road.

One more prediction for today – and it is a prediction and not an opinion – is this! If we continue to persistently hammer people to stay home, especially on social media, just as Newton’s Third Law of Motion postulates, that insistent heavy-handedness will inevitably incite that equal and opposite reaction.

It’s simply a matter of human nature!

Wisconsin, Texas, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, and particularly Michigan, are already facing outright rebellion. It’s gotten so bad in Michigan that a plurality of their county sheriffs refuse to enforce the Governor’s draconian shelter-in-place edicts.

To a lesser but still worrisome extent, yesterday afternoon’s moderate temperatures quickly demonstrated that the folks in my neighborhood aren’t nearly as concerned with social distancing as they once were.

It’s called “losing the consent of the governed”, and if that movement is allowed to progress past the tipping point, all bets are off. Calling in the National Guard won’t be enough to shut things down again. I’ve already made my coronavirus countermeasure paradigm shift thoughts clear, but J. B. ain’t listening to me.

That doesn’t mean I won’t persevere in my efforts to encourage my Illinois compatriots to stay the course until our elected officials determine the most reasonable way to reopen the state. But if the Governor and his advisors don’t come to terms with this seething resentment soon, they’ll be no decision to make.

As the great Otto von Bismarck clearly recognized, “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable.”

9 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – A better day!

  1. I’m curious as to why you moved from the 5 day moving average to a 12 day moving average.
    I’m also wondering what you see as a heavy handed approach being taken by the State of Illinois. I have yet to see anything other than conversation between law enforcement and citizens.
    Keep up the good work and thank you

    • Simply because it was more descriptive of how, so far, Friday seems to be a new case outlier.

      Meanwhile, Illinois is doing better than the other mentioned states, but, considering what I saw in my neighborhood yesterday, people are beginning to say “Fuck it. I’ll do what I want!”

  2. i thank you — I care about what you do
    — my wife follows your stats

  3. Always enjoy reading your facts, thank you. Not surprised that it hasn’t even been 4 weeks and people are getting restless. They are not making the connection between the stay at home orders are why the virus did not spread as quickly as originally predicted. Also gave an ill prepared system a chance to ramp up. Most of these “protests” are nothing more than MAGA rallies from your car.

    • It ain’t all MAGA, because if they haven’t figured out something by May 1, I’m gonna lead the rebellion!

      We know exactly who to protect, so let’s do that and get back to work!

      • OK Jeff. Now you are beginning to disappoint. They have it figured. It’s testing and all across this great country there just isn’t enough testing supplies available. And I don’t believe it is the governors’ fault. We should have a Federal purchasing program in place but we don’t.

      • I gotta be me because the numbers don’t lie!

      • Agree give the low risk population a mask and Purell and back to work, with precautions of course. I would be curious to see how death rates for other medical causes in the lower risk age groups compare to death rates from Covid. Not enough data to accurately compare, but would still be interesting.

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