The First Ward Cornavirus Report – Slow progress is still progress!

Alright class! You’ve done so well that I think it’s time to cover two new trend concepts – “support” and “resistance.” But in order to better examine these possibilities, it would be helpful to have our table as a reference. So, here ya go:

Facts Not Fear 3

Date   Cases   % Increase N Cases  N Tested  Prevalence    Deaths 

3/18     288

3/19     422               46.5           134                           1 in 14

3/20     585               37              163                           1 in 12

3/21     753               29              296                           1 in 7

3/22     1,049            39              896                           1 in 2

3/23     1,285            28              236                           1 in 8

3/24     1,535            22.5           250                           1 in 8

3/25     1,855            21.5           320                           1 in 6

3/26     2,538            37              683                           1 in 6

3/27     3,026            19              488                           1 in 8

3/28     3,491            15.4           465                           1 in 8

3/29     4,596            31.6        1,105                           1 in 4               65

3/30     5,056            10              460           2,684       1 in 6               72

3/31     5,994            18.5           938           4,779       1 in 5               90

4/1       6,980            16.5           986           5,159       1 in 5             141

4/2       7,695            10.2           715           3,272       1 in 4.6          157

4/3       8,904            15.7        1,209           4,392       1 in 3.6          210

4/4     10,357            16           1,456           5,533       1 in 4             243

4/5     11,256            8.6             899           5,402       1 in 6             274

4/6     12,262            9             1,006           3,959       1 in 4             307

4/7     13,549            10.5        1,287           5,790       1 in 4.5          380

4/8     15,078            11.3        1,529           6,334       1 in 4             462

4/9     16,422            9             1,344           5,791       1 in 4.3          528

4/10   17,887            8.7          1,445           6,670       1 in 4.6          596

4/11   19,180            7.2          1,293           5,252       1 in 4.1          677

4/12   20,852            8.7          1,672           7,956       1 in 4.75        720

4/13   22,025            5.6          1,173           5,033       1 in 4.3          794

4/14   23,247            5.5          1,222           4,848       1 in 4             868

4/15   24,593            5.7          1,346           6,313       1 in 4.7          948

I’s certainly getting a bit larger! Thus, I will likely post just the last two weeks of data going forward.

There were certainly no surprises yesterday. We’ve tested 116,929 citizens, the prevalence seems intent on bouncing between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5, and the Illinois mortality rate ticked up to a new 3.8 percent high. (Damn!) Meanwhile, despite a much better testing day, the 24-hour new case percentage remained near the low at 5.7 percent.

The five-day new case moving average also reflects that deceleration.

Date         5-day M Average

4/7                   1,172

4/8                   1,236

4/9                   1,214

4/10                 1,323

4/11                 1,382

4/12                 1,457

4/13                 1,386

4/14                 1,365

4/15                 1,342

But on to support and resistance!

Again, anyone who’s seriously studied stock or stock index charts is way ahead of me on this one. In that always fascinating realm, “support” is a low at which traders rush in to buy a stock driving the price higher towards “resistance.”

As you might imagine, resistance is a high price at which traders tend to sell the stock to lock in profits. Some market mavens might even sell it “short” when it hits a specific resistance point in anticipation of a retreat towards the support level.

To make matters even more fascinating, once the stock price drops below it, a former support level will act a resistance and vice versa. Here’s a graphic stock chart example of support and resistance:

How to successfully trade support and resistance – Learn To Trade ...

While it’s easy to understand this simple supply and demand driven dynamic – traders buy at support and sell at resistance – I can’t really explain why all numeric trends tend to behave in this manner. Though I am convinced it has something to do with my personal theory that we herd-ish human beings like to move in waves.

Watch people enter and leave a restaurant, checkout at the grocery store, or note how they drive in highway “packs” and you’ll see exactly what I mean.

But getting back to our table, as you can clearly see, starting on April 5th, the new daily case increase percentage consistently bounced back up from 9 percent level. But when it broke through that “support” on April 10th and 11th, the same 9 percent mark became the new “resistance” level. As is often the case, we “tested” that new upper boundary on April 12th, but then our percentage proceeded to trend downward with 5.5 percent becoming new support floor.

Trust me! I fully understand how this conversation confirms my vast propensity for all things geeky, but I’ll freely admit that I find these eminently predictable arithmetic principles beyond fascinating.

But while I can’t fully explain the magic of trends, I can tell you that any further good coronavirus news is utterly dependent on our behavior. So, until our elected officials figure out how to safely reopen the state, let’s just keep up the good work!

4 thoughts on “The First Ward Cornavirus Report – Slow progress is still progress!

  1. Jeff, in the last 24 hours testing incresed 30.8% and the “infection” rate was only up 21.3% — we are at a plateau – ideally this is our peak.

  2. Jeff, you thoughts on “herdishness” explains why when working at the dry cleaners it seemed like everyone lined up at the corner till they had a group before coming in. I see the same trend when working box office at local community theatres – you sit and wait then all of a sudden the lobby is full! Thanks for your reports – and yes, I am a fellow geek!

    • Vicki,

      Yes! You’ve noticed it, too! Despite the fact that it’s clearly not planned that whole human wave theory works almost every time!

      I’t flippin’ fascinating.

      Jeff

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