Your First Ward Roving Reporter – The power of a persistent trend!

Since there isn’t a whole heck of lot to report today, let’s get right to the numbers!

Date   T Cases    % Increase      N Cases       N Tests    Prevalence    Deaths

3/18     288

3/19     422               46.5             134                           1 in 14

3/20     585               37                163                           1 in 12

3/21     753               29                296                           1 in 7

3/22     1,049            39                896                           1 in 2

3/23     1,285            28                236                           1 in 8

3/24     1,535            22.5             250                           1 in 8

3/25     1,855            21.5             320                           1 in 6

3/26     2,538            37                683                           1 in 6

3/27     3,026            19                488                           1 in 8

3/28     3,491            15.4             465                           1 in 8

3/29     4,596            31.6         1,105                           1 in 4            65

3/30     5,056            10               460          2,684        1 in 6            72

3/31     5,994            18.5            938          4,779       1 in 5            90

4/1       6,980            16.5            986          5,159        1 in 5           141

4/2       7,695            10.2            715          3,272       1 in 4.6         157

4/3       8,904            15.7         1,209          4,392       1 in 3.6         210

4/4     10,357            16           1,456          5,533       1 in 4            243

53,581 Illinoisan have been tested, and after moving up a few ticks yesterday, the mortality rate held steady at 2.3 percent. We also fell to number nine in the coronavirus state rankings which is another sign our specific social distancing efforts are making a difference.

Facts Not Fear 3

Much like yesterday, considering Illinois processed a record 5,533 tests, our 16 percent daily case increase is very good news. Yes! The number of new coronavirus cases is setting records, but for the last two days, the percent increase of newly tested individuals was far greater than the 24-hour percent case increase.

Before your (and my) head explodes, here’s what I mean:

Date           % Case Increase   % Testing Increase

4/3                       15.7                            34

4/4                       16                               26

While more testing inevitably leads to more cases, we’re not seeing a direct one-to-one correlation between new testing and new cases as some readers thought we would. Put more simply, it’s taking more testing to find fewer new cases.

The fact that our prevalence ratio backed off a bit to 1 in 4 is further evidence of this non-correlative contention.

Given a frontline nurses comment on yesterday’s report, let’s get back to that all-important mental health aspect of a shelter-in-place pandemic, because what she said might be more troubling than the disease itself:

 I work in healthcare, and we are starting to see a surge of patients, not from COVID, but from anxiety and other mental health issues – lots of panic attacks (which can mimic COVID symptoms), suicidal ideations, increased agitation, and people who have been sober for years that have suddenly started drinking again. The doom and gloom of the media is definitely taking its toll on a lot of people’s mental health, and that is having a negative impact on our healthcare system and our ability to devote our full resources to fighting COVID 19.

So, I went to, a non-profit mental health and wellness website for their insights on how to handle the anxiety and isolation:

  1. Stay informed, but don’t obsessively check the news.
  2. Focus on the things you can control, not what you can’t.
  3. Plan for what you can.
  4. Stay connected by phone, email, or social media.
  5. Be kind to yourself.
  6. Create and stick to a routine.
  7. Head outside and get some exercise.
  8. Avoid self-medicating with drugs or alcohol.
  9. The best way to overcome fear is to help someone else.
  10. Don’t be afraid to get professional help if necessary.

I would also suggest we focus on the positive and not the negative because, not only have none of the doom and gloom scenarios come to pass, but our trend clearly indicates that the Illinois coronavirus curve is continuing to level off.

That said, particularly as we head toward that April 15 pandemic peak, now is exactly the time to keep up the good work!


3 thoughts on “Your First Ward Roving Reporter – The power of a persistent trend!

  1. That list should include not watching the news. Eliminating this has decreased my anxiety tremendously. Thanks for the positive information.

  2. Can we fight back? The city’s have trucks that spray the streets before it snows.
    They can be converted to spray a safe disinfectant, sanitized the city’s
    They also have vacuum trucks, filter the air through UV filters.
    Install UV light system in doorways of hospitals, police, fire , store entrances, mass transportation, ect. Retrofit metal detectors to incorporate UV lights
    For now and the future

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