Your First Ward Roving Reporter – We’re still good!

Your First Ward Roving Reporter – We’re still good!

Since those Switch games seem to be calling my name and there aren’t any significant coronavirus revelations to report, I’m gonna do my damndest to be a bit more concise. I won’t let the fact that I’ve never had much success with brevity stand in my way, either.

Particularly when you consider we tested 34 percent more people than Thursday, the news is quite good! Yes! Illinois reported a single day 1,209 new case record yesterday, but my favorite students know the measure of a pandemic isn’t the number of cases, it’s how fast the virus is spreading.

Facts Not Fear 3

Considered by itself, the Illinois coronavirus case total (8,904) offers absolutely no insight or predictive possibilities. Ah! But Friday’s 15.7 percent 24-hour case increase tells us that transmission continues to slow as a result of our persistent social distancing efforts.

I know it might seems like an isolation eternity, but just 2.5 weeks ago, the number of new coronavirus cases were doubling (50 percent) every day. But despite the news media’s utterly irresponsible promotion of doom and gloom projections, in less than three weeks Illinois has borne witness to a 66 percent drop in the speed of the pandemic.

For you doubters, the math looks EXACTLY like this: (((46.5 on 3/19 – 15.7 on 4/3) / 46.5) * 100)

Of course, it’s not over! But if we had done absolutely nothing to combat this plague, the number of total Illinois cases would be well over one million! That certainly makes 8,904 look a heck of a lot better!

While it’s more than amusing to see all the hilarious Mayor Lori Lightfoot memes, if the Second City’s gonna hit that 40,000 coronavirus hospitalization mark, with just under 4,000 total cases, they better get on the stick! And just where are California Governor Gavin Newsom’s “26 million cases in eight weeks?”

Sorry! I just couldn’t help but point out how appropriately applied math never lies! That’s the purview of politicians.

Meanwhile, here’s our updated table:

Date   T Cases    % Increase      N Cases       N Tests    Prevalence    Deaths

3/18     288

3/19     422               46.5             134                           1 in 14

3/20     585               37                163                           1 in 12

3/21     753               29                296                           1 in 7

3/22     1,049            39                896                           1 in 2

3/23     1,285            28                236                           1 in 8

3/24     1,535            22.5             250                           1 in 8

3/25     1,855            21.5             320                           1 in 6

3/26     2,538            37                683                           1 in 6

3/27     3,026            19                488                           1 in 8

3/28     3,491            15.4             465                           1 in 8

3/29     4,596            31.6         1,105                           1 in 4            65

3/30     5,056            10               460           2,684       1 in 6            72

3/31     5,994            18.5            938           4,779        1 in 5           90

4/1       6,980            16.5           986           5,159       1 in 5             141

4/2       7,695            10.2           715           3,272       1 in 4.6          157

4/3       8,904            15.7        1,209           4,392       1 in 3.6          210

The total amount of Illinoisans tested comes to a rather robust 48,048.

The prevalence moved up a bit to 1 in 3.6, but with all of the other indicators in sync, there’s no need to worry about that one. Had the disease mutated into something far more contagious that curve flattening would’ve already turned around.

We predicted the mortality rate would be a lagging indicator – people don’t die from the virus right away – and it is with the Illinois jumping to 2.3 percent. Don’t forget that only includes people who contracted the coronavirus.

I know this isolation is wearing on all you extroverts – we’ll talk about that tomorrow – but rest assured, Dear Reader, the news is far better than even I thought it would be at this still early point.

So, why not keep up the good work!

 

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