Your First Ward Roving Reporter – Back on track!

Having received some rather humorous “complaints” about massive headaches as a result of yesterday’s statistics class, let’s keep it simple and sweet today because the news is almost all good! And the best news is Illinois’ downward daily percentage coronavirus trend remains intact. Every day it persists makes it that more likely to continue to persist.

Facts Not Fear 2

So, let’s get right to our table, which is getting a bit bigger. I apologize for my lack of WordPress formatting skills, but going forward, “T” stands for “Total” and “N” stands for “New.”

Date   T Cases    % Increase      N Cases       N Tests    Prevalence    Deaths

3/18     288

3/19     422               46.5             134                           1 in 14

3/20     585               37                163                           1 in 12

3/21     753               29                296                           1 in 7

3/22     1,049            39                896                           1 in 2

3/23     1,285            28                236                           1 in 8

3/24     1,535            22.5             250                           1 in 8

3/25     1,855            21.5             320                           1 in 6

3/26     2,538            37                683                           1 in 6

3/27     3,026            19                488                           1 in 8

3/28     3,491            15.4             465                           1 in 8

3/29     4,596            31.6         1,105                           1 in 4            65

3/30     5,056            10               460           2,684       1 in 6            72

The total number of Illinoisans tested is now, 30,446, and our mortality rate remained at 1.4 percent.

Again! The 10 percent increase in new cases over Sunday is a very welcome new low. So, while we’re still seeing people contract the coronavirus, the daily percentage increase in those new cases has plummeted from 46.5 percent, or almost double on March 19, to just 10 percent yesterday. And now that we have 12 data points, I’d bet my life this trend will continue until and unless there’s significant evidence to the contrary.

Our prevalence number also returned to its normal range with one in six of our 2,684 newly tested individuals proving to be positive.

Chicago’s numbers also were back in line accounting for 92 of the new Illinois cases, putting their daily percentage increase at the same low 10 percent. And it looks like Illinois will stay at number eight in the coronavirus case state rankings after once being as high as fourth.

The only troublesome data is, like Louisiana last week, Washington state’s mortality rate similarly jumped to four percent, Georgia’s moved up to 3.6 percent and Michigan’s hit the 2.8 percent mark. Louisiana continues to top the nation with an inexplicable 4.6 percent mortality rate.

I originally thought Louisiana had to be an outlier, but my current best estimate is coronavirus deaths come in waves and those out-of-whack numbers will come down over time. Let’s hope they do.

Please remember that trends can change, diseases can mutate, and hidden variables can come to light. But since the only thing we can control is ourselves us and our continued social distancing efforts, let’s focus on that and try to let go of what we can’t control.

Our good work is paying off! Let’s keep it up!

11 thoughts on “Your First Ward Roving Reporter – Back on track!

  1. Jeff, curious on your thoughts of the following: I have two family members working in hospitals that say non-serious but extremely likely COVID19 patients are sent home to self quarantine with no test. One works in Chicago, the other outside of Illinois. This implies counts much higher but doesn’t necessarily impact trend.

    • KC,

      Exactly! I’m hearing more and more that there are a lot of very mild uncounted cases, and while they won’t change the trend, once enough people are tested, we may have to reconsider how we’re fighting the disease.

  2. Louisiana may have higher co-morbidity factors than other states.

  3. Mark,

    I would’ve gone with that but for those other states catching up in that tragic regard. The co-morbidity factors are certain a factor, but there’s gotta me more to it!

  4. I appreciate the work that you are putting into this and I too like what I’m seeing as to the flattening of the curve.
    What bothers me a little is that when I talk to the younger generation, I have twins in their 20’s, I’m beginning to hear: ‘See, it isn’t that bad.’ and that makes me worry. So many people don’t seem to have the resolve to stay the course.

    • Thomas,

      That’s my biggest fear, too! That’s why I keep saying we need to keep doing what we’re doing. Thankfully, at least in this coronavirus case, I don’t have very many young readers.

  5. So the headline today is USA surpasses China in death toll from COVID-19. How can this be. China has 4x population as USA. Either China lies about its death toll, dramatically or we are completely inept at dealing with a pandemic. Usually the truth lies somewhere in the middle. But seeing we are weeks or months behind China on this journey. We will exceed their reported death toll 3x or 4x. No one should feel our federal leadership has a clue or a handle on this. It’s not political its reality

    • Dave,

      There is some talking that with the state-run cellphone provider losing 21 million subscribers, the death toll there is far worse than the Chinese are letting on.

      Also, their authoritarian government was able to shut Hubei Province down in a way we could never do with New York City!

      • I would like to see a graph on when this is supposed to peak. Every day I see we are two weeks away. Italy is two weeks England New York. It never changes always two weeks out. Give me a hard date
        It is like old communist 5 year plan. Never reach end. Your chart at least explains numbers and shows how numbers are used as headline scare tactics. As I was always told figures don’t lie but liars figure

    • Jim,

      I’m sure I could extrapolate a chart/curve based on the current data, but I’m a bit rusty with that math and I’m busier than ever right now!

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