Quick Hits – All the Dem’s have to do is be saner than Trump

That’s it! It’s that bleepin’ simple. But instead of heeding that seemingly sage advice, the collective response from that giddy gaggle of goofs known as the Democratic primary field is “Hold my beer!”

Beto O’Rourke is coming for your AR-15s, Elizabeth Warren wants you to pay for inmates’ sex change operations, Bernie Sanders believes the Boston Marathon bomber should be allowed to vote, Corey Booker thinks Barack Obama wasn’t liberal enough, Kamala Harris thinks Joe Biden wasn’t liberal enough – in the ‘70s, and Marianne Williamson believes we can change a hurricane’s path with the power of our minds.

Democratic Candidates

But my all-time favorite Democratic proclamation is Julian Castro defending transgendered women’s abortion rights. Ummm, Julian! Please tell me you knew that transgender women can’t get pregnant?

And this is supposed to be the cream of the crop?

For purposes of full disclosure, I did purloin a couple of those examples from Bill Maher and last week’s dead-on ‘New Rules’ finale. But the truth is, I’ve been explaining this truth to candidates for eight long years which is why my campaign track record sits somewhere north of reasonable.

Put very simply, it’s pointless to pander to people WHO ARE ALREADY GONNA VOTE FOR YOU! And the failure to heed this conspicuously simple advice is why so many candidates, and especially novices, lose.

Unless you’re a “movement candidate,” and, trust me, you’re not (nor is any current presidential contender) or you wouldn’t be reading this. Diehard Democrats always vote Democratic and diehard Republicans always vote Republican. With the right message, leaning Republicans can be convinced to vote for a Democrat, and vice versa.

And this political reality is as eminently predictable as death, taxes, and Democrats blowing presidential elections.

Generally, I’d be loathe to blurt out one of my best kept professional secrets, but I’m not too worried because 98 percent of candidates are so convinced they hold the keys to the electoral kingdom they’ll never listen to me anyway.

If you’re a 2020 Chicago Collar Countywide Republican candidate, given the impending Trump effect, here’s what you can count on:

  1. Diehard Republicans WILL vote for you
  2. Diehard Democrats will NOT vote for you
  3. Leaning Democrats will NOT vote for you
  4. Leaning Republicans will LIKELY NOT vote for you

Since Collar County Republicans continue to outnumber the Democrats, the only group that matters to our fictional countywide GOP candidate is leaning Republicans, and thus, their entire focus should be on bringing back these all-important swing voters.

Conversely, if you’re a 2020 Collar Countywide Democratic candidate, here’s what you can expect:

  1. Diehard Republicans will NOT vote for you
  2. Diehard Democrats WILL vote for you
  3. Leaning Democrats WILL vote for you
  4. Leaning Republicans will LIKELY vote for you

That means, the only group that matters to this imaginary countywide candidate is leaning Republicans, and thus, their entire messaging focus should be on them, because swaying one leaning Republican away is the equivalent of getting two votes!

And nothing, not even your gloriously gleaming visage is going to change that reality.

This dynamic is even more pronounced at the presidential level where swing voters always make the difference. It was the Rust Belt that got Donald Trump elected, after all.

So, when O’Rourke says he’ll confiscate assault rifles, something near and dear to Democrats’ hearts, but certainly not to leaning Republicans, will that get him votes, or lose him votes?

Worse yet, Sanders’ stance on mass murderer voting rights and Warren’s position on taxpayer funded inmate sex-change operations are so far beyond the political pale that I can’t even begin to comprehend what they or their campaign teams could possibly be thinking.

Because even if you claim they’re pandering to the far left in an effort to win the primary, you’d be wrong. Only 46 to 48 percent of Democrats identify themselves as liberals, and if I’m Donald Trump’s team, I’m gonna be harping on how “those crazy Democrats” want you to pay for prisoners’ sex change surgery from here to eternity.

That’s the kind of visceral message that sticks with those all-important swing voters, too.

It’s such a simple concept that even an ADHD fourth grader would get it. All the Democrats have to do is be less crazy than Donald Trump – the guy who changed a hurricane path map with a black Sharpie – and they win in 2020.

But they can’t even handle that. Now I understand why their Party symbol is a jackass.

12 thoughts on “Quick Hits – All the Dem’s have to do is be saner than Trump

  1. This critique is eerily similar to your errant advice for Lauren Underwood in 2018.

    • My advice to Lauren Underwood was DEAD ON. She was saved by Randy Hultgren’s greater stupidity. The white man attacking the black woman over whether she was really a nurse or not was an unbelievably bad move. Had he simply shut up, Hultgren would’ve kept his seat.

      Meanwhile, Underwood will win in 2020, but that’s the last time she’ll win.

      And what’s you’re track record getting Democrats elected? I bet mine is a lot better!

      • I don’t know. As I recall, there were at least 2 blog posts devoted to all of the campaign mistakes Underwood was making. Don’t think she heeded much of what you offered. Much of which centered on not alienating the leaners/centrists/moderates etc.. This seems to be your argument again. She was already polling 6 points ahead when Hultgren pulled his last minute nurse stuff. She won by 5. You probably know a ton more about IL politics than me. You just misjudged that race. It’s ok. I just want you to grow from your mistakes.

      • Joe,

        The one I really got wrong – and learned quite a bit from – was predicting there was no way Donald Trump would win.

        But I stand by those blog posts on Underwood, because while her primary campaign was masterful, her general election campaign was a disaster. But then Hultgren saved her by making an even bigger mistake.

        All the polls I saw the last month before the election put the two within the margin of error meaning either candidate could’ve won. But Hultgren’s choice to attack Underwood over something really inconsequential like not really being a nurse when he was already on thin ice was the nail in his political coffin.

        But Underwood didn’t and still doesn’t see that diehard and leaning Dems were/are going to vote for her regardless. So why appeal specifically to them in a 60 percent Republican district?

        That’s how you lose elections.

        She’ll win in 2020 because Oberweis is back to playing the clown, but unless she comes back to the middle, something she seems incapable of, she will lose in 2022 when the anti-Trump pendulum swings back.

        Put more simply, while Underwood clearly won the primary, she didn’t win the general election, Hultgren lost it.

        Jeff

  2. Yep you are spot on and I don’t understand why the Democrats don’t realize that! If Biden can just hold it together during a debate there might be a chance.

  3. You are correct for the General Election; but these crazy Dem’s are in a Primary and are trying to gather all the left-wing nutjobs into their camp!

  4. What about us independents?

    • According to the Democrat’s Votebuilder database, there’s only about 5,000 Independents who vote in Kane County. It’s not that you’re ignored, but if one of my candidates is gonna send a mailer, we’ll likely target someone’s voting record and not their labeled political leaning.

      However, when it comes to door knocking there’s no point in going after Independents (countywide) when there are far better target groups. And since no countywide candidate can possibly hit as many doors as they need to during a campaign, Independents tend to get left out!

  5. Knocking on my door is the fastest way to lose my vote. When I lived in Illinois I had a sign on my door. No salesmen or politicians.

    • Rico,

      There are people who feel the way you do and putting up that sign makes your wishes more than clear. But when it comes to local elections, the only thing that wins them is a well targeted knocking campaign.

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