Quick Hits – The First Ward Midterm Predictions – Mild Revisions

I’m generally standing by last week’s electoral prognostications and I’m certainly looking forward to seeing scurrilous Kane County Auditor Terry Hunt’s gleaming visage adorned in a White Sox cap after I prove to be dead on in the governor, attorney general and 6th district congressional races.

But as I like to say, “When the evidence changes, my mind changes,” and a late Sienna College /New York Times poll has Lauren Underwood pulling away from 14th congressional district incumbent Randy Hultgren. And the Sienna/Times polls are always among the most accurate.

Hultgren Underwood

Not only that, but Hultgren’s last-minute attack ad questioning Underwood’s nursing credentials is beyond absurd and it’s bound to backfire with the swing voters that could cost Hultgren the race.

Since Mr. Hultgren brought up the whole morality thing, has anyone noticed his wife follows him everywhere he goes and she never looks very happy about it? Trust me! Her ubiquitous presence has nothing to do with love and devotion or the fact she can’t live without him.

Meanwhile, I believe that Underwood’s more positive recent mailers are the reason she’s pulling away. She’s finally appealing to swing voters.

The bottom line? Despite running a horrific campaign with horrific signs, I’m now forecasting Underwood will win by 5 points.

It would also appear that young and new voters are, indeed, casting mid-term ballots which means I’m leaning towards my previous “if young and new voters vote” qualifications in those original prophecies.

Put more simply, I think this is gonna be a really bad night for statewide and federal Republicans.

5 thoughts on “Quick Hits – The First Ward Midterm Predictions – Mild Revisions

  1. . . And . . as a bonus . . She is absolutely adorable . . . .

  2. It is about time Republican politicians explained why we should vote for them and go work for a vote rather than thinking they are anointed and chosen because they have an R behind their name. Generally this applies to all of DuPage and much of Kane

  3. From your lips to God’s ears, Jeff.

    This is of course anecdotal, but I noticed when I voted last week at the library that more than half the line was millennials. This was heartening because usually early voting, especially for midterms, draws nothing but old farts like me.

    • Pan,

      Remember! As far as I’m concerned this is pure science. And I’ve learned that the Sienna/NY Times polls tend to be very accurate.

      I’ve also taken note of the CNN articles describing the fact that millennials are actually voting which really does change everything. I don’t think it will have much effect on the local races, but I now put Hain and Kramer in a dead heat.

      And remember when the early voting numbers pop tonight that Democrats vote early at a far greater rate than Republicans. I learned that the hard way during the Martinez for coroner campaign.

      Jeff

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