Perhaps I’m losing my touch in my old age, or perhaps running a campaign and helping a couple of other candidates makes it much more difficult to pay attention to all the variables, but even though my pre-election predictions were generally accurate, I certainly didn’t do as well as I usually do.
So, let’s review class:
Absolutely no surprises there, though I was one of the few folks who said Ives would get at least 47 percent of the vote (she got 48.5 percent). It will be a fascinating battle of the billionaires, with both Pritzker and Rauner out for blood through November. Considering the heavy Democratic primary turnout and the “blue wave” we’ve seen in Alabama, Virginia and Pennsylvania, Pritzker will be our next governor.
2. Attorney General
I truly thought Fairley would do better than 12.5 percent, and I’m shocked that failed governor Pat Quinn managed to get 27.5 percent. But in the end, Kwame Raoul squeaked by with just 30.3 percent of the vote. He will demolish Republican Erika Harold in the general.
3. 14th Congress
This one is a real shocker. Not only did Democrat Lauren Underwood win, she received more votes than her six opponents COMBINED. Either Ms. Underwood’s team knows something I don’t know or all that national press truly paid off.
What I don’t understand is how the voters utterly abandoned Jim Walz, the 2016 Dem nominee, to the tune of just 9.8 percent of the vote. Given a Mulligan, I’d make the same call, because that kind of abject defeat should have been a statistical impossibility. The good news is, Underwood will finally put GOP incumbent Randy Hultgren out of our misery.
4. Kane County Sheriff
Though I called this one correctly, I’m semi-shocked that, despite his Delnor and blown budget baggage, incumbent Republican Don Kramer beat challenger Kevin Tindall with 59 percent of the vote.
On the Dem side, Ron Hain beat Willie Mayes with 57 percent of the voters giving him the nod. In what might be a Kane County first, Hain got 1,200 more primary votes than Kramer did. So, I’m going to go all Broadway Joe on you and guarantee a Hain general election win.
5. Kane County Clerk
It’s called the power of the incumbency for a reason. Without even lifting a finger, Jack Cunningham won a fourth term with a whopping 62 percent of the vote. He faces Democrat Nico Jimenez in the general who won’t be much of a challenge.
6. Kane County Board
I was mostly on target here with:
- Deb Allen
- Monica Silva
- Myrna Molina, and
- Barb Wojnicki
all retaining their seats. Wojnicki does have a Democratic opponent in Lucas Strom, but since it doesn’t get any more Republican than Campton Hills, this one’s a done deal.
Perennial candidate Mo Iqbal easily held off two challengers in the 19th district, but Republican incumbent Kurt Kojzarek will beat him without breaking a sweat in November.
With just three votes separating them, we’ll have to wait on the absentee ballots to determine whether the 3rd District goes to incumbent Don Ishmael or challenger Anita Lewis.
I was one of the few people to correctly call Tom Koppie as T. R. Smith’s 9th district successor. Opponent Connie Von Keudell’s chronic comportment problems have not made her many friends.
But what nearly had me running around Batavia naked last night was watching Steve Weber destroy three-term 13th district county board member Phil Lewis by 64 to 36 percent. I would not have survived another four years of that man.
I don’t want to brag (well, actually I do!), but I did provide some very interesting statistical observations to both Ms. Silva and Mr. Weber and they won big. Of course, they had to work their butts off to execute the plan, but despite what the great Mark Twain said – properly applied statistics work – better than even I imagined!
7. 16th Circuit Judge
Aside from correctly predicting the GOP side would fall into recount territory and the eminently arrogant Judge David Kliment would come in dead last, I didn’t get much right here!
Word is, Kliment is saying he’ll run again and the good news is, he’ll lose even bigger next time.
In a clear case of there’s no such thing as bad publicity, Mike Noland walloped Lark Cowart on the Democratic side. But he’s facing the kind of ethics complaint that may put an end to his general election hopes before he even gets started.
How anyone can still vote for that poor excuse for a human being is completely beyond me.
Meanwhile, depending upon where you look, it appears that Circuit Clerk Tom Hartwell topped Judge Elizabeth Flood by a scant 50 votes. Any outstanding absentee ballots won’t make a difference and a recount won’t change anything, either.
Though I’d weakened on my Flood wins prediction earlier in the week, in yet another major campaign faux pas, she clearly paid no attention to Aurora who put Hartwell over the top. If you want to study a campaign in which a sure winner simply gave it away, this is the one.
Considering that general judicial arrogance, I’m betting Flood will call for a discovery recount. Of course, given his Elgin roots, Hartwell will destroy Noland in the General.
8. Fox River Countryside Fire Protection District
Though it was far closer than anyone anticipated – it failed by 1 percent or 49 votes – when you consider the service cuts they’ve threatened to impose, it’s time for the State to step in and finally dissolve that failed district.
If anybody has any thoughts on Underwood, or anything else we just discussed, I’m all ears!