One of my favorite people on the planet is occasional Left, Right, and You radio co-host Paul Edwards. Though he can be overbearing and dismissive in the moment, Paul always manages to provide a philosophical challenge and I truly value our off-the-air conversations.
But as I listened to him predict a 7 point Romney landslide – again – on WRMN AM1410 yesterday, though it cried out for it, I couldn’t bear to call in and challenge his assertion. Nothing would’ve convinced him otherwise anyway.
You see, despite an utter lack of supporting evidence, Paul had conjured up this hidden, unpolled cache of first time anti-Obama voters who were suddenly going to rise up and sweep our favorite Mormon directly into D.C. And this is a microcosmic symptom of exactly why the GOP lost the White House – wishful thinking.
Like Fox News and most Republican pundits, Paul ignored the polls because they didn’t fit his world view. And when, like Mythbuster Adam Savage, you essentially say, “I reject your reality and substitute my own,” then you’ve stripped yourself of the possibility of making the necessary adjustments.
As a psychology major, I’ve done the math. And let me tell you, those standard deviations, regressions to the mean and bell curves are fricken’ powerful stuff. To ignore them is to court certain doom. Can one poll be a little off? Sure! But not 20 of ’em.
Aside from taking the first debate, candidate Romney, who insisted upon preaching to the choir until he lurched to the middle so suddenly that no one believed him, never made the appropriate adjustments. If you watched him closely during debates two and three you could see how uncomfortable he was when directly confronted with someone who challenged his views.
Everybody (except Fox News) was saying it. To win the White House Republicans had to appeal to women and Hispanics. But not only did the GOP fail to heed this warning, it was as if they were intent on alienating both groups. So what happened? The President took 71 percent of Hispanics and trounced Romney by 12 percent among white women.
All the GOP had to do to win this election was insert Marco Rubio in the VP slot. And I knew they wouldn’t do it because they’re still hanging their hat on middle aged white men. And the truth is, we’re a fading group. To paraphrase those wise Middle Earth elves, the time of old white men is over. It’s the time of women and minorities.
There’s no judgment there – I simply speak the truth. And this was the GOP’s last hurrah in the old white guy regard. The demographics of this country are rapidly changing and if Republicans don’t stop inhaling Fox News, they’ll be sitting on the national sidelines for years to come.
Folks, I predicted this one from the beginning because Republicans are so predictable. The only reason the President didn’t hit my 5 percent mark is because he forgot to show up for the first debate and no one could’ve predicted that. But even then, it was an electoral college landslide.
Just like those phantom voters disappointed Paul, wishful thinking only gets you heartache. And if the Republican Party doesn’t stop engaging in that pastime right now, we’ll be welcoming President Biden in four short years.
Lastly, while I’ve enjoyed giving my radio compatriot a little poke here, when Paul finally did see the light, he proved to be very gracious in defeat by writing, “Congratulations to President Obama. The people have spoken.”
And despite how disappointed some of you might be with this outcome, I would encourage you to follow in Mr. Edwards’ admirable footsteps.